[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: NE gale-force winds are present,
now, from 11N to 11.5N between 74W and 75W. A tight surface
pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea, between
high pressure to the north of the basin and lower pressure in
northern Colombia, will continue to support fresh to near gale-
force winds, offshore northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force
especially during the overnight and early morning hours, for the
next few days. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet.
Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 05N18W to 03N20W, and 01N25W. The
ITCZ continues from 01N25W to the Equator along 26W, to 01S30W,
and to 02S36W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is
from 03N southward from 05W eastward, and from 03N northward
between the SE coast of Liberia and 10W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 10W
and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge of high pressure is along 28N/29N, from Florida
toward Texas.

A cold front is moving into south central Texas. It is forecast
to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

Low cloud ceilings of 2000 feet or lower cover the coastal
plains from Texas to Tallahassee in Florida. Visibilities of 2
miles or less and fog cover the areas that are between
Tallahassee and Perry. Fair skies cover the rest of the coastal
plains of the Florida west coast. Light rain and drizzle have
been observed off and on during the last few hours at the
MacDill Air Force Base in the Tampa metropolitan area.

Fresh to strong winds will persist near and to the NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight into the early morning hours due to
local effects. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of
Mexico Sun morning following by fresh to strong northerly winds.
The wind speeds will reach minimal gale-force Sun afternoon
through Sun night near the Tampico area, with seas building up
to 11 feet. The front will extend from central Florida to
central Bay of Campeche on Mon afternoon, become stationary late
on Mon, then move northward Mon night into Tue while weakening.
A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed night.
Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Puerto Rico to 15N74W, to
the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans the entire Caribbean
Sea.

A surface trough is along 10N74W in northern Colombia, to Panama
about 45 nm to the NW of the Colombia/Panama border, beyond
07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in individual
clusters, are in Colombia within 250 nm to the SSE of the
surface trough, between 73W and the coast of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local
meteorological offices for more details.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will continue
to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, with winds
pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh
trade winds will prevail elsewhere south of 18N and E of 80W.
Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras
through early Mon, and in the Windward Passage through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough is on top of a surface
trough that is along 63W/64W from 22N to 30N. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 160 nm to the NNW of the
Canary Islands, and about 120 nm to the SW of the Madeira
Archipelago. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 29N northward from 22W eastward.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 33N34W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the Canary Islands low
pressure center and the 63W/64W surface trough.

A surface ridge is along 30N67W to Florida from 28N to 29N
between 81W and 82W.

A surface ridge will prevail through the weekend. A cold front
will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast Sun night, reach
from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon, stall and
weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then move northward
on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the
ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage
mainly at night through Wed night. A second cold front is
forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu.

$$
mt/era
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