[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean Sea between high pressure north of the
basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to
support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern
Colombia, pulsing to gale force especially during the overnight
and early morning hours. Similar conditions are forecast through
the middle of next week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the
late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please
read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 03N20W to 0N26W. The ITCZ continues from 0N26W to
04S37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N-06N between 03W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic Ocean
to across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, supporting
moderate SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow over
the western half of the gulf. Shallow moisture is supporting
isolated showers over the NE gulf while a plume of low-level
moisture shown in Layered Precipitable Water imagery supports
areas of dense fog over the north-central and NW gulf.

Fresh to strong winds will develop near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight into the early morning hours due to
local effects. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico
Sun morning following by fresh to strong northerly winds. Winds
will reach minimal gale force Sun afternoon through Sun night near
the Tampico area, with seas building up to 10 or 11 ft. The front
will extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on
Mon afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward
Mon night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move
off the Texas coast Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea offshore of
northern Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, across
the approach to the WindWard Passage, south of Hispaniola,
southwest of Puerto Rico and in the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are
in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest
offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the 5-7 ft range
elsewhere. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the
region, with isolated to widely scattered showers embedded in the
trade wind flow.

High pressure across the west-central Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean
through Thu night, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
south of 18N and E of 80W through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon, and in the
Windward Passage through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 32N37W covers the
central and western Atlantic waters and provides moderate to
fresh easterly winds W of 35W between 21N to 25N with seas in the
7 to 8 ft range over the central Atlantic waters. Gentle to
locally moderate SE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6 ft
range. Over the eastern Atlantic, the pressure gradient between
the ridge and a 1000 mb low just N of the Canary Ilands, supports
fresh to strong N winds N of 24N E of 28W with seas to 12 ft.

The ridge will prevail through the weekend. A cold front will
move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night, reach from 31N72W
to central Florida Mon afternoon, stall and weaken over the north
waters on Mon night, then lift northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh
winds will continue south of the ridge, with fresh to strong
winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night.
Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night
into Thu.

$$
Ramos
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