[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
hours. These conditions are expected to continue through at least
the middle of the week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the
late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is entering the extreme
northwestern Gulf of Mexico as of this morning. As the front
moves SE across the area, NW winds reaching gale- force are
expected to develop S of 24N west of the front this afternoon and
continue through Monday morning. Seas will range between 8-12 ft
with the strongest winds.

Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on these warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N14W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W to 02S37W.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S
to 06N E of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A cold front extends from 21N94W to 27N97W, moving southeastward.
Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are occurring NW of
this front. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms
are noted within 90 n mi of the front. A surface ridge extends
from the Atlantic and across the eastern two-thirds of the basin
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the area.
Patchy dense fog is still noted over portions of the extreme
western Gulf to the south of the cold front.

Fresh to strong winds will occur near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula into the early morning hours due to local
effects. The cold front will continue to progress SW and winds
will reach minimal gale force this afternoon through tonight near
the Tampico area, with seas building up to 12 ft. The front will
extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on Mon
afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward Mon
night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move off
the Texas coast by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts near-gale-force winds across
the south-central Caribbean within 90 nm of the Colombia coast.
Fresh to strong trades are noted across much of the central
Caribbean, the approach to the WindWard Passage, and southwest of
Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the
basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean,
except 9-13 ft offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the
5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the
region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind
flow.

High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force
near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere south of 18N and E of 80W. Fresh to strong
winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon,
and in the Windward Passage through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin inside the
discussion area, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 30N37W.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 24N W of 25W with
seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds
are N of 24N and W of 25W with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Over
the extreme eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is centered near the
Canary Islands at 30N18W. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 n mi of the low. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds are noted N
of 25N and E of 25W.

A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast tonight, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon,
stall and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then lift
northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of
the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage
mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast
to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu.

$$
Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net