[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are present, near
the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient in the south
central Caribbean Sea, between high pressure to the north of the
area and lower pressure that is in northern Colombia, will
support pulsing winds to gale-force, during the overnight into
the early morning hours, for the next couple of days. The sea
heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet. Please, read the NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, on
the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 08N12W, to 04N15W, and to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from
01N19W, to the Equator along 25W/26W, to 01S30W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N
southward between 22W and 28W.

A surface trough is to the south of the Equator, along 06S34W
03S34W 02S41W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 45 nm on either side of
the line that runs from: 03S34W, to the Equator along 36W, to
01N38W 03N41W 04N45W 03N48W 03N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A warm
front has moved inland, already, into Texas. A surface ridge
passes through central Florida, toward the west central Gulf of
Mexico. SW Louisiana, and it continues southwestward to the
coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A surface trough runs the length of
the Texas Gulf coastal plains. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds are to the north and northwest of the line
that runs from the Florida Big Bend, to the central Gulf of
Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.  Rainshowers are
possible from the cold front northwestward.

Fresh to strong SE winds will develop to the north of the
Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and shift into the south central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. A cold front will move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. The cold front will reach from
the NE Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche on Monday; become
stationary on Tuesday morning; then move northward as a weak
warm front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front is
expected to move off the Texas coast on Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans the entire Caribbean
Sea.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to Panama
about 45 nm to the NW of the Colombia/Panama border, beyond
07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in individual
clusters, are in Colombia within 280 nm to the SSE of the
surface trough, between the border of Colombia/Venezuela and
77W. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins
from your local meteorological offices for more details.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will continue
through Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in
the central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night. The wind
speeds will be pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia
on each night. Fresh trade winds will prevail to the south of
18N through Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds will continue in
the Gulf of Honduras through early Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough is on top of a 32N57W
21N59W surface trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the surface
trough.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 170 nm to the NNW of the
Canary Islands, and about 90 nm to the SW of the Madeira
Archipelago. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 29N northward from 22W eastward.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 34N41W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the Canary Islands low
pressure center and the 32N57W 21N59W surface trough.

A surface ridge is along 31N62W to 29N71W, beyond central
Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The current ridge along 29N will prevail through the weekend. A
cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast on Sunday
night. The front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida on
Monday afternoon; stall and weaken on Tuesday; then move
northward on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moderate to fresh
winds will continue to the south of the ridge, with the highest
winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next week.

$$
mt/DM
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