[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A deepening 1006 mb low
pressure is just north of the Canary Islands near 32N17W. This
low is expected to move across the Meteo-France High Seas area of
Madeira today into tonight. A gale warning is in effect through
2100 UTC today, mainly for frequent gusts. Expect seas of 10-13
ft this weekend north of 27N and east of 25W, due to this system.
For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-
marine/_bulletin/grandlarge/_metarea2

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean sea between high pressure ridging north
of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia will
support pulsing winds to gale force during the overnight into
the early morning hours for the next couple of days. Seas will
build to around 12 ft during these winds. For more details,
refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 03S33W
to 00N49W in Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 03S to 04N between 18W to 49W, and
scattered moderate convection near the monsoon trough from 03N
to 06N between 13W to 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stalling front is starting to retrograde northward as a warm
front from the south-central coast of Louisiana to the western
Gulf near 25N96W. The southern portion of the front has dissipated
to a remnant trough, continuing from 24N96W to the Bay of Campeche
near 18N94W. Areas of rain are possible on either side of the
front and trough within 60 nm. A ridge of high pressure reaches
from the Southwest North Atlantic to across the Florida Panhandle.
Moderate to locally fresh return flow is noted east of the front
and trough, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Mainly moderate winds are
noted west of the boundary and north of 26N along with 4-6 ft seas.

The warm front over the western Gulf is forecast to lift N of
the area this evening. Fresh to strong southeast winds will
develop north of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and shift westward
to the south-central Gulf on Sat while expanding in coverage. A
cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun
morning, reach from the NE Gulf to the Bay of Campeche on Mon,
become stationary Tue morning, then lift northward as a weak warm
front on Tue and Tue night. A cold front is expected to approach
the Texas coast Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on a Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea.

A tight pressure gradient is across the western and central
portions of the basin with fresh to strong winds noted in the
Gulf of Honduras, through the approach to the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola, with fresh to near gale force winds
elsewhere in the central Caribbean outside of the gale warning,
the strongest northwest of the coast of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades are noted elsewhere. Seas are 8-12 ft in the
central Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 6-9 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras. Typical isolated to widely scattered
showers on the trade wind flow will be possible this afternoon.

High pressure over the western and central Atlantic will continue
through the period. Fresh to strong trade winds will remain over
central Caribbean through Wed night, with winds pulsing to gale-
force near the coast of Colombia each night. Mainly fresh trade
winds will exist S of about 18N well into next week. Fresh to
strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A 1027 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda extends ridging
across the western Atlantic, with gentle winds north of 26N
between 60W-70W, and moderate to locally fresh trades near the
Greater Antilles, across the Bahamas, and offshore of northern
Florida. Seas of 4-6 ft and fair weather conditions prevail
across most of the western Atlantic, except for a few isolated
showers east of the central Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed
from 28N65W to 20N60W, with isolated showers associated with the
feature. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
east of the trough, north of 22N between 53W-57W, associated
with a mid-upper level trough.

A 1034 mb high pressure centered near 35N38W extends ridging
southward across the open central tropical Atlantic waters.
Mainly fresh to locally strong trades prevail across this area
per recent scatterometer data, with seas of 7-11 ft.

A high pressure ridge, with its axis roughly along 28N/29N, will
change little through the weekend. A cold front will move off
the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night, reach from near 31N73W to
east-central Mon afternoon and become stationary. It will lift
north of the area as a warm front through Tue night as a trough
sets-up offshore along the southeastern U.S. coast. This trough
may develop into weak low pressure that lifts northward along the
U.S. eastern seaboard through late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds
will continue south of the ridge, with the highest winds expected
near the Windward Passage into early next week.

$$
Torres
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