[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are present, near
the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient in the south
central Caribbean Sea, between high pressure to the north of the
area and lower pressure that is in northern Colombia, will
support pulsing winds to gale-force, during the overnight into
the early morning hours, for the next couple of days. The sea
heights will range from 8 feet to 13 feet. Please, read the NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, on
the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 08N12W to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W, to 00N26W
to 01S30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
south of 05N southward between 23W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends along 29N from the western
Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Anticyclonic
wind flow spans the entire basin. Scatterometer data shows fresh
SE winds in the west-central Gulf from 24N to 27N between 92W
and 95W, and fresh to strong E winds in the Straits of Florida
north of Cuba between 81W and 83W. Gentle to moderate winds are
occurring elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central part of
the Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Isolated shower activity is
located near the coast of Mexico from 22N to 25N west of 95W.

Fresh to strong winds north of the Yucatan peninsula will shift
westward into the south-central Gulf later today. A cold front
will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning, reach from
the NE Gulf to the Bay of Campeche on Monday, become stationary
Tuesday morning, then lift northward as a weak warm front Tue
night. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh easterly
trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough
extends from eastern Panama to northern Colombia. Scatterometer
data showed a large area of fresh to strong trade winds across
the central Caribbean, with winds to 35 kt near the coast of
northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. Mostly fair weather
conditions prevail across the region, with isolated showers
embedded in the trade wind flow.

High pressure across the west-central Atlantic will continue
through Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist over
central Caribbean through Wednesday night, with winds pulsing to
gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade
winds will prevail south of 18N through Wednesday. Fresh to
strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from 31N57W to
22N59W, with isolated showers observed near the trough axis. A
1009 mb low pressure center is about 170 nm NNW of the Canary
Islands, and about 90 nm SW of the Madeira Archipelago.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 29N
northward and 22W eastward.

A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 33N39W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the Canary Islands low
pressure center and the 32N57W 21N59W surface trough. A surface
ridge is along 29N, across north-central Florida, and into the
Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade
winds across the tropical Atlantic, and gentle to moderate
winds in the vicinity of the ridge axis. Seas are estimated to
be 7 to 10 ft east of the Windward Islands, and 4 to 7 ft
elsewhere.

The ridge along 29N will prevail through the weekend. A cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sunday night,
reach from 31N72W to central Florida Monday afternoon, stall and
weaken on Tuesday, then lift northward Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the
ridge, with the highest winds expected near the Windward Passage
into early next week.

$$
Mundell
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