[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea gale warning: The Bermuda High will build across
the western Atlantic through the remainder of the week and prevail
through the weekend. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and climatological low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong winds across the south Central Caribbean, with
winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia each night through at
least Mon night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft during the period of
gale force winds.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N17W to 00N33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 01S to 04N E of 16W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 05N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building across the eastern Gulf. Low pressure
prevails across Mexico. The pressure gradient between these two
features is supporting fresh to strong southerly winds over the
central and western Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Gulf,
5-7 ft over the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf.

The pressure gradient the ridge building over the eastern Gulf
and low pressure over E Mexico will support fresh to strong SE
winds over the central Gulf today. A cold front will move into the
W Gulf today, with a brief period of near gale force winds west
of the front off Tampico, Mexico this afternoon. The front will
stall and weaken late tonight. The remnant boundary will then
shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri into Sat.
Another cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see above for more on the pulsing of gale force winds off
the coast of Colombia starting late tonight.

High pressure is building across the western Atlantic waters. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low
pressure across Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over
the south central Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and a trough of low pressure across southern
Mexico into Honduras is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
Gulf of California. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over each of
these areas. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the
Caribbean waters. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range,
except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic and prevail
through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the
south-central Caribbean, with gale- force winds pulsing near the
coast of Colombia each night from Thu night through at least Mon
night. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage this
weekend to the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the discussion waters, anchored by
1035 mb high pressure centered near 37N42W. Fresh to strong winds,
and seas of 6-9 ft, prevail south of this area of high pressure.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 23N and W of 60W, with
moderate to fresh winds S of 23N and W of 60W. Seas are in the 4-5
ft range over the open waters west of 60W.

The high pressure ridge will continue to build westward across
the northern waters, roughly along 29N, through the end of the
week and persist through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail south of the ridge, with winds strengthening over the
approach to, and into, the Windward passage tonight into early
next week.

$$
AL
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