[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING: The Bermuda High will build across
the western Atlantic Ocean, through the remainder of the week,
and prevail through the weekend. The pressure gradient, between
the Bermuda High and climatological low pressure that is in
Colombia, will produce fresh to strong winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea, beginning on Thursday. It is expected for
the wind speeds to pulse to gale-force on each night, from
Thursday night through at least Sunday night. The sea heights
will build to heights that will range from 10 feet to 12 feet
during the period of the gale-force winds.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, curving to 07N15W and
05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to the Equator along
33W.  Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06W
eastward, and within 150 nm of the coast of South America
between 41W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 06N southward from 50W eastward, and from 10N
southward between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface low pressure is in the northern parts of the Gulf
of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Florida coast near
29N85W, southwestward, to the coast of Texas near 27N. The
trough is about 75 nm offshore, from Florida to Texas.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the
north of the line that runs from the coast of Mexico near 22N,
to 24N90W, to the coast of SW Florida near 25N. Rainshowers are
possible along and to the north of the line.

A surface trough in the northern Gulf of Mexico will move
northward tonight. A high pressure ridge that is building in the
E Gulf of Mexico, and persistent low pressure that is in NE
Mexico, will support fresh to strong SE winds in the western and
central Gulf of Mexico, through the end of the week. A cold
front will move into the W Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, where it
will stall and weaken. The remnant boundary then will shift
westward into Mexico and southern Texas, from Friday into
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the Caribbean Sea,
to the north of the line from 16N60W to 12N71W.

A surface trough is along 10N74W in northern Colombia, to Panama
about 40 nm to the NW of the Colombia/Panama border, beyond
07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous
strong rainshowers are from 08N to 09N between 71W and 73W, and
from 04N to 06N between 76W and 78W. Other isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 200 nm to 240 nm to the SE
of the surface trough. Please refer to the forecasts and the
weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for
more details.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure will build in the western Atlantic Ocean through
the end of the week, and prevail through the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea.
Gale- force winds are expected to pulse near the coast of
Colombia, on each night, from Thursday night through at least
Monday night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N58W to
26N59W 23N64W, and to the Mona Passage. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is from 26N to 32N between 53W and 58W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are elsewhere from 22N northward between 49W and
60W.

A surface trough passes through 32N27W to 28N30W to 24N36W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 16N northward between 20W and 40W.

A high pressure ridge will build westward across the northern
waters through the end of the week, and persist through the
weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen in the southern
waters this weekend, as the ridge builds and prevails.

$$
mt
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