[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The Bermuda High will build across
the western Atlantic through the remainder of the week and
prevail through the weekend. The pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High and climatological low pressure over Colombia will
support fresh to strong winds across the south Central
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia each
night through at least Mon night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft
during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at
website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N31W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 04S-05N between
00W-13W. Similar convection is seen along and within 210 nm N of
the ITCZ between 20W-39W. Similar convection is also noted
within 120 nm offshore the coast of Brazil from 05S-02N between
37W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the western Gulf of Mexico, and extends
from just east of Galveston Bay near 29.5N 94.5W SSW to north of
Tampico Mexico near 23N98W as of 25/1500 UTC. Isolated to
scattered showers are along and east of the front, mainly north
of 27N. Ahead of the front, the latest ASCAT pass shows strong S
winds over the central Gulf of Mexico, where buoy 42395 in
Walker Ridge is reporting a significant wave height of 11 ft at
25/1540 UTC. Behind the front, the latest buoy and platform data
indicate that fresh to locally strong N winds have developed
along and just offshore of the Texas coast late this morning. A
brief period of near gale force N winds is expected this
afternoon behind the front offshore of Tampico. The front will
stall and weaken late tonight. The remnant boundary will then
shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri through Sat.
Another cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
pulsing of gale force winds off he coast of Colombia starting
late tonight.

Mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the western Caribbean.
As a result, GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery shows dry air
across the basin. The latest ASCAT data pass reveals fresh
trades across much of the basin south of 17N between 65W-80W.
Strong trades are likely occurring offshore of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate wind speeds prevail elsewhere.
NOAA buoy 42056 near 20N85W is measuring 23 kt SE winds with 6
ft seas. Seas are likely 7-9 ft offshore Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western
Atlantic and prevail through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds
will persist over the south-central Caribbean, with gale-force
winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia each night from tonight
through at least Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will
expand in coverage this weekend to the remainder of the central
and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
Gulf of Honduras through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda extends ridging
across the western Atlantic, with gentle wind speeds north of
24N between 58W-78W and moderate to locally fresh trades closer
to the Greater Antilles. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the W
Atlantic. Most of the area between 62W-80W is currently
experiencing mostly clear skies. High pressure ridging will
build westward along 29N through Fri and change little through
the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the
ridge, with winds strengthening over the approach to the
Windward passage tonight into early next week.

A surface trough extends from 22N61W to 31N58W. A mid to
upper-level trough is over the same area. Upper-level diffluence
to the east of the trough axis is inducing scattered moderate
showers and tstorms from 24N-32N between 53W-59W. A 1035 mb high
north of the area near 39N43W extends broad ridging southward,
to the east of the aforementioned trough. Trade winds are fresh
to locally strong south of the high, from 05N-30N between
33W-53W, with seas of 6-9 ft.

In the NE Atlantic, a 1014 mb low pressure has formed south of
the Canary Islands near 26N 17.5W. This low is expected to
deepen as it moves N and crosses the Canary Islands tonight.
Gale force winds are expected to develop Friday morning near and
just west of the Madeira Islands, to the north of 32N, in
association with this low. Expect seas of 10-13 ft this weekend
north of 27N and east of 27W, in N to NE swell, due to this
system.

$$
Hagen
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