[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean gale...A cold front has moved into the NW waters,
while high pressure is building across the NE United States. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the
front is supporting strong to near gale winds off the east coast
of Florida, north of 27N. There will be frequent gusts to gale
force over this area starting this morning and continuing
through Sun afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 01N21W to
03N33W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N-06N between 05W-22W. Similar convection is noted from 02N-
06N between 32W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across northern Florida into the Gulf,
just south of the Florida Panhandle.  Surface troughing follows
the front, extending from Alabama, through Pensacola, Fl, into
the NE Gulf. No significant precipitation is associated with
this front. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail over the Gulf,
with the exception of the NE Gulf where winds are NE moderate to
fresh, behind the front. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except
reaching 6 ft over the SE Gulf.

The cold front over the northeast Gulf will weaken as
it moves across the eastern and central Gulf through through
late Sun. High pressure will build over the northeast Gulf early
next week, supporting increased E to SE winds and building seas
over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will
stall along the Texas coast by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends over the far NW Caribbean from
western Cuba to Belize. Some showers and thunderstorms exist
along the front off the coast of Belize.  Fresh to strong winds
prevail over the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
winds over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-
9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the
north central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western
Caribbean.

The stationary front across the far NW Caribbean will
dissipate through late today. Large northerly swell east of the
Leeward Islands will subside through today. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean into early
next week. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest
Caribbean by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above Special Features section for details on gale
conditions off the coast of northern Florida.

A cold front over the NW Atlantic waters is associated with a
1019 mb low pressure center near 30N78W. A stationary front
continues northeastward from this low, north of the discussion
area. An ASCAT pass from 1500 UTC revealed strong to near gale-
force winds behind this boundary, gusting to gale force.  Seas
behind the front are 7-12 ft. A stationary front extends from
32N66W to western Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds prevail between
the stationary front and the cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms are along and within 70 nm of the stationary
front, north 25N. Seas range from 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front moving through the waters off
northeast Florida will move into the Straits of Florida by early
Sun as the first front dissipates. The second front will move
farther east and dissipate through Mon as low pressure develops
along the front and lifts north of the area through Tue. A ridge
will build westward into the region along roughly 27N by Wed.

Farther east, surface ridging extends into the tropical
Atlantic, allowing for moderate return flow west of 45W. A
stationary front extends from 32N32W to 27N39W with strong winds
prevailing behind the front, north of 27N and seas 8-11 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas 6-8 ft.


$$
Mora
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