[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean gale...A cold front has moved into the NW waters,
while high pressure is building across the NE United States. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the front
will support strong to near gale winds off the east coast of
Florida, north of 27N. There will be frequent gusts to gale force
over this area starting this morning and continuing through Sun
afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
02N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 00N
to 06N between 14W and 21W, from 02N to 05N between 21W and 31W,
and from 02N to 06N between 31W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the northern Gulf from the Florida panhandle
to the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf
waters. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except reaching 6 ft over
the SE Gulf.

The cold front over the northeast Gulf will weaken as it moves
across the eastern and central Gulf through through late Sun. High
pressure will build over the northeast Gulf early next week,
supporting increased E to SE winds and building seas over the
western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the far
northwest Gulf late Tue or Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends over the far NW Caribbean. Fresh to
strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean with
moderate to fresh winds over the north central and eastern
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean,
and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean.

The stationary front across the far NW Caribbean will dissipate
through late today. Large northerly swell east of the Leeward
Islands will subside through today. Fresh to strong winds will
prevail over the south central Caribbean the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for a developing gale off the coast of northern
Florida.

A stationary front extends from 32N69W to western Cuba. A new cold
front has entered the NW waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted
west of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail between
the stationary front and the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds
are within 300 nm east of the stationary front north of 27N. A
surface ridge extends from 32N51W to the central Bahamas. Gentle
winds are within the ridge. south of the ridge, moderate to fresh
winds prevail. Farther east, a stationary front extends from
32N32W to 20N50W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 26N
within 300 nm west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will move into the
Straits of Florida by early Sun as the stationary front
dissipates. The cold front will move farther east and dissipate
through Mon as low pressure developing along the front lifts north
of the area.

$$
AL
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