[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean gale warning...
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure across the NE
United States and a stationary front extending from 31N76W to a
1018 mb low near 28N79W is supporting strong to near gale winds
off the east coast of Florida, north of 27N. There will be frequent
gusts to gale force over this area through Sun afternoon. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane
Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W and continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to
02N30W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N-08N E of 16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 0N-09N W of
30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail of a cold front extends across central Florida to just
south of Tampa Bay and then continues to the NE gulf waters near
28N85W. Fresh NE to E winds are N of this frontal boundary. The
remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge that is
providing gentle to moderate northerly winds. Seas across the
region fluctuate between 3 to 4 ft. Otherwise, with mainly deep-
layered dry air across the basin, fair weather is expected within
the next two days.

The cold front will weaken as it moves across the southeastern
Gulf through Sun. High pressure will build behind the front over
the northeast Gulf through early next week, supporting increased E
to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking
ahead, a weak cold front will stall along the Texas coast by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Playa Giron, Cuba southwest to
Belize coastal waters with isolated showers ahead of it reaching
83W. Moderate N to NE winds are behind this front along the
Yucatan channel, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize adjacent waters.
Moderate to locally fresh trades are across the eastern half of
the Caribbean and the SW basin, except for fresh to strong winds
over Colombia adjacent waters. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are in the region
of strongest winds.

The stationary front across the far NW Caribbean will dissipate
tonight. Large northerly swell east of the Leeward Islands will
subside through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over
the south central Caribbean into early next week. Looking ahead,
high pressure building over the western Atlantic will support
fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above Special Features section for details on gale
conditions off the coast of northern Florida.

A stationary front extends from 31N67W to a 1017 mb low near
26N79W. A second stationary front is over the far NW forecast
waters associated with the gale warning in the special features.

The cold front extending from a 1018 mb low near 28N79W will move
into the Straits of Florida by early Sun as the first front
dissipates. The second front will move farther east and dissipate
through Mon as low pressure developing along the front lifts north
of the area through Tue. A ridge will build westward into the
region along roughly 27N through mid week.

$$
Ramos
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