[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

High pressure building southward behind a cold front making its
way across the Gulf of Mexico will briefly increase winds along
the coast of Mexico near Veracruz to minimal gale-force this
afternoon. NW winds are expected to peak at 30-35 kt this
afternoon, then remain NW to N at 20-30 kt until midnight. Seas
will increase to 9-11 ft during the brief period of gale force
winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N32W
to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted about 260 nm
south of the monsoon trough east of 19W, and along the ITCZ from
00N to 05N between 20W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features above for more details on the
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning.

A cold front passes through SE across the FL Panhandle near
30N86W, into the west-central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W. Scattered moderate convection is evident north
of 26N and scattered showers south of 26N. Dry conditions prevail
with fresh to strong northwest winds behind the front. A surface
trough is analyzed ahead of the front extending from Panama City
southwest to near 28N87W.

The cold front over the Florida Panhandle will continue moving
SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche this afternoon, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula on Fri. Gale-force NW winds are expected near the
Veracruz coast of Mexico this afternoon. Expect strong
thunderstorms along the front N of 26N today. Fresh to strong N to
NE winds and building seas are expected in the NE Gulf Sat night
through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through the Lesser Antilles
and weakens from 14N63W to 15N69W. Scattered showers are are
noted along the weakening front and within 45 nm south of the
front.

Earlier scatterometer data indicated a surface trough in the
southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea. The trough extends from
the southeast coast of Nicaragua to the northern coast of Panama.
This trough is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong
convection along the coast of Nicaragua southeast to 09N81W.

The cold front will drift southward and continue to weaken
through tonight. Large northerly swell will subside across
Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through Fri.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the central
Caribbean through Fri morning, with near
gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. A
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel
Fri night, then meander across the NW Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N34W and extends across the Lesser
Antilles south of Guadalupe near 15N61W into the NW Caribbean
Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and isolated rain
showers are within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, associated with high
pressure north of 32N, covers the Atlantic Ocean north and
northwest of the cold front.

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 32N64W. A cold front trails
from the low center to 30N67W, and then continues as a stationary
front to near the coast of South Carolina, near 33N79W. Isolated
shower activity is noted along the frontal boundary.

The cold front in the central Atlantic will meander and weaken
through Fri. Large northerly swell will subside across the
waters E of 72W through tonight. A cold front will move east of
northern Florida late tonight, extend from near 31N71W to the
Straits of Florida Fri evening, then become stationary on Sat. An
area of low pressure forming along the stationary front will
intensify northerly winds east of northern Florida Sat evening
through Sun night, with gale conditions possible.

$$ Torres
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