[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

High pressure building southward behind a cold front making its
way across the Gulf of Mexico will briefly increase winds along
the coast of Mexico near Veracruz to minimal gale-force this
afternoon. NW winds are expected to reach 25-30 kt later this
morning, peak at 30-35 kt this afternoon, then remain NW to N at
20-30 kt until midnight. Seas will increase to 9-11 ft during the
brief period of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N18W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W
to 02N33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 05N between 13W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana near 29N91W, into the
west-central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 21N98W.
Scattered showers are evident along the frontal boundary and up to
90 nm east of the front.

The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the
central Bay of Campeche this afternoon, and from southern Florida
to the Yucatan peninsula on Friday. A brief period of gale-force
NW winds are expected near the Veracruz coast of Mexico later
today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are
expected in the NE Gulf Saturday night through Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through the Lesser Antilles
16N62W and extends eastward into the NE Caribbean Sea to south of
the Mona Passage near 17N69W. Scattered showers are occurring
along the frontal boundary and within 45 nm south of the front.

Earlier scatterometer data indicated a surface trough in the
southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea. The trough extends from
the southeast coast of Nicaragua to the northern coast of Panama.
This trough is enhancing shower activity in southern Central
America, including Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, during the
past 12 to 24 hours.

The cold front across the NE Caribbean will drift southward and
weaken today. Large northerly swell will subside across Tropical N
Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through Friday. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail in the central Caribbean through
Fri morning, with near gale-force winds expected near the coast
of Colombia tonight. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach
the Yucatan Channel Friday night, then meander across the NW
Caribbean through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N33W and extends across the Lesser
Antilles near 16N62W into the NW Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast
multi-layered clouds, and isolated rain showers are within 120 nm
on either side of the frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow, associated with high pressure north of 32N, covers the
Atlantic Ocean north and northwest of the cold front.

A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N68W. A cold front trails
from the low center to 31N71W, and then eastward to 31N79W near
the coasts of South Carolina and Georgia. Isolated shower activity
is noted along the frontal boundary.

The cold front will drift SE, then stall and weaken today. Large
northerly swell associated with the front will subside across the
waters east of 72W today. A cold front, currently in the Gulf of
Mexico, will move east of northern Florida late tonight, extend
from near 31N71W to the Straits of Florida Friday evening, then
become stationary on Sat. An area of low pressure forming along
the stationary front on Saturday will intensify northerly winds
east of northern Florida Sunday and Sunday night, with gale
conditions possible in the coastal waters of northern Florida.

$$
Mundell
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