[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: High pressure building southward
behind a cold front making its way across the Gulf of Mexico is
supporting minimal gale-force winds along the coast of Mexico with
NW winds at 30-35 kt. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale
force this evening, then remain NW-N at 20-30 kt until around
midnight. Seas around currently peaking around 9-11 ft.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 02N33W. The ITCZ continues from 02N33W to
00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted offshore of Sierra Leone and
Liberia to the equator between 07W-14W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N-02N between 30W-36W, and from 01N-03N
between 44W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features above for more details on the
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle across
Apalachee Bay to across the central Gulf of Mexico to the central
Bay of Campeche. A line of scattered thunderstorms, some severe
with frequent lightning, is along and ahead of the front, mainly
north of 26N. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere near the
front. Fresh to strong NW winds follow elsewhere behind the front
along with seas of 6-9 ft. Southerly flow of moderate to fresh are
ahead of the front north of 25N, with gentle to moderate
southerly winds south of 25N. A weak surface trough is analyzed
along the western Yucatan Peninsula from 23N88W to 18N91W.

The cold front will continue moving southeast and reach from
southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula Fri morning, then move
southeast of the basin by Fri evening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
and building seas are expected in the northeast Gulf of Mexico Sat
night through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens there.
Southerly return flow will then dominate across the basin early
next week, fresh to locally strong in the central and western
portions of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front is analyzed across the northeast
Caribbean Sea extending from near Montserrat to south of Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic terminating near 15N69W. Scattered
showers are are noted along the dissipating front and within 45-90
nm south of the front. Earlier scatterometer data indicated a
surface trough in the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea. The
trough extends from near the Panama Canal to the southeast coast
of Nicaragua to across inland portions to eastern Honduras near
15N85W. This trough is enhancing scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection within 60-120 nm on either side of the feature.
Fresh to strong trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean
where the pressure gradient is tight between low pressure over
northern Colombia and Atlantic high pressure northeast of the
area. Seas are 7-11 ft across the south-central Caribbean. Mainly
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-7
ft seas, locally to 8 ft.

The front in the northeast Caribbean will drift southward and
continue to weaken through tonight. Large northerly swell will
subside across Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages
through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the
central Caribbean through Fri morning, with near gale-force winds
expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. A cold front from the
northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche will reach the
Yucatan Channel Fri afternoon, western Cuba to Belize Sat, then
meander across the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fairly tranquil
marine conditions are forecast early next week as the front
dissipates while weakening the pressure gradient across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N35W to near Montserrat and
continuing into the northeast Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast
multi-layered clouds, and isolated to scattered showers are
within 60-120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow, associated with high pressure
north of 32N, covers the Atlantic Ocean north and northwest of the
cold front. Remnant northerly swell of 7-11 dominates the waters
east of 65W.

A 1017 mb low pressure center is just east of Bermuda near
32N63W. A stationary front trails from the low center to 31N70W,
then continues northwest as a warm front to the North Carolina
Outer Banks. Isolated to scattered showers are possible north of
28N between 55W-75W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted
within 60-90 nm south of the boundary and south of 31N. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front moving through
the southeast United States are moving into the waters east of
northern Florida. Fresh to strong southerly flow is noted ahead of
the front north of 27N and west of 75W. Seas are building in this
area of increasing winds, currently 5-8 ft, with 4-7 ft seas
elsewhere west of 65W to the Bahamas.

The stationary front across the central Atlantic will meander and
weaken through Fri. The remnant northerly swell east of 65W will
subside through Fri. A cold front will move east of northern
Florida tonight, extend from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida
Fri evening, then become stationary on Sat. An area of low
pressure forming along the stationary front will intensify
northerly winds east of northern Florida Sat through Mon, with
gale conditions possible. Conditions should then gradually improve
Mon night through Tue night as the low pulls away from the area to
the north-northeast.

$$
Lewitsky
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