[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale- force W
winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to reach south of 31N
border between 48W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning. By
late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds
will diminish to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak
between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night
through Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
from the National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 03N21W to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 03N30W to
00N38W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
occurring from 01S-07N and east of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf near 29N84W. As seen in
buoy and scatterometer data, there are E trades in the Florida
Straits and moderate to fresh SE winds in the W Gulf. Elsewhere
winds are moderate or weaker. Seas range 3 to 5 ft with 6 ft seas
in the NW Gulf. No significant shower activity is present as
subsident upper- level anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf.

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters with southerly return flow
across the basin. The western Gulf can expect fresh to locally
strong winds through this morning. A frontal boundary is expected
to linger along the Texas coast through Mon before lifting farther
inland by Mon evening. Fresh southerly flow will develop over the
western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. By Wed night, a
cold front will push off the Texas coast and move across the basin
on Thu. The front will exit the southeast Gulf by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge of high pressure is centered north of the Caribbean
along 29N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is helping to promote fresh
to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and fresh NE winds in
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Peak
seas are only 5-6 ft in the W Caribbean. Scattered showers are
occurring in the southern Windward Islands with no significant
convection elsewhere.

Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to
strong NE winds are also expected to pulse near the coast of
Colombia at night through Thu night. By Tue, fresh to strong winds
will build across the central Caribbean through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas
northern border.

A cold front is beginning to sink southward across the western
Atlantic, stretching from 31N65W to 31N77W. Showers are noted
along the front with light to moderate winds behind it. A trough
is north fo Puerto Rico from 23N57W to 19N65W with isolated
showers associated with it. In the eastern Atlantic, ridging from
high pressure extends across the region. A 1019 mb high pressure
is centered near 28N47W. A second trough is located from 31N31W
to 24N41W. Moderate winds are noted north of Hispaniola, otherwise
light to gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic. Seas range 4-6
ft.

A surface trough located north of Puerto Rico will
drift eastward through Mon. A cold front will push southward
between Bermuda and northern Florida today. A stronger reinforcing
cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Fresh NE winds can be
expected across the region. Another cold front is expected to
push off the Florida coast on Thu night.

$$
AReinhart
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