[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic gale warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W winds
in the S semicircle are anticipated to reach south of our 31N
border between 50W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning. By
late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds
will have diminished to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to
peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon
night through Tue night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N48W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
between 00N and 05N east of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf, near 29N95W. As seen in
buoy and scatterometer data, there are E trades in the Florida
Straits and SE winds in the W Gulf that are a fresh breeze.
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas peak near 5 ft in the
W Gulf. No significant shower activity is present as subsident,
upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf.

Southeast return flow over the western Gulf will expand across
the rest of the basin on Sun, becoming fresh to locally strong in
the western Gulf. A cold front will stall near the coast of Texas
on Sun and move back inland by Sun night. Southerly return flow
will increase again across the Gulf region Tue night and Wed ahead
of the next cold front pushing off the Texas coast by Wed. The
front is expected to move across the Gulf on Thu and exit Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge of high pressure is centered north of the Caribbean
along 29N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is helping to promote fresh
to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and fresh NE winds in
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Peak
seas are only 5-6 ft in the W Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in the SE Caribbean this evening, with no
significant convection elsewhere.

Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the region
through Sun as a high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens.
Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. By Tue,
fresh to strong winds will build across the central Caribbean.
Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
at night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas
northern border.

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from a 1024 mb high
centered offshore of NE Florida to a 1020 mb high near 28N50W. The
resulting NE to E trades south of the ridge are moderate across
the basin. A surface trough just north of Puerto Rico is analyzed
from 20N66W to 24N60W. Winds just north of the trough are NE up to
a fresh breeze. Farther northeast, another surface trough extends
from 32N32W to 24N40W. A cold front is drapped along our N border
from 32N65W to 32N80W, though peak winds in our AOR are weaker
than a fresh breeze. Peak seas are 4-6 ft in association with the
trough north of Puerto Rico and with the trough near 35W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 12N
west of 50W. Scattered showers are also present from 23N-27N
between 55-60W in association with the surface trough. No other
significant convection is occurring elewhere.

Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the SW N Atlantic
through Sun as a high pressure in the west-central Atlantic
weakens. A surface trough located north of Puerto Rico will drift
eastward during the next couple days. A cold front will move
southward between Bermuda and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A
stronger, reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon.
Another cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on
Thu night.

$$
Landsea
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