[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 02N43W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from
02S-06N between 02W-17W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N-04N between 17W-30W and from 02N-06N between 41W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is over the northern Florida peninsula. Surface
ridging extends westward across the northern Gulf. As a result,
the latest ASCAT data pass shows gentle wind speeds over the NE
and north-central Gulf, north of 27N and east of 91W, where seas
are estimated to be 2-4 ft. Fresh SE return flow is over the
western Gulf, with seas of 4-6 ft. Mid and upper-level
anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, leading to
subsidence and relatively dry air. A few patchy areas of marine
fog are noted near the Texas coast and Alabama coast.

For the forecast, southeast return flow over the western Gulf
will slowly expand across the rest of the basin this weekend,
becoming fresh to locally strong in the NW Gulf tonight. Winds
will diminish into early next week as a cold front stalls near
the coast of Texas Sun through Mon night. Patchy areas of dense
marine fog are possible along portions of the Gulf Coast during
the next few nights and mornings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic.
The latest ASCAT data pass shows fresh to locally strong winds
just off the coast of Colombia, in the Windward Passage and in
the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail elsewhere
across the NW Caribbean. Gentle trade winds prevail east of 70W.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the western half of the
Caribbean, except to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. Seas range
from 4 to 5 ft over the eastern Caribbean. A mid-level ridge
prevails over the western portion of the basin, with subsidence
and relatively dry air. Some cloudiness and rain showers are
noted from the southern Windward Islands extending westward to
the ABC Islands.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish across the region
through Sun as the high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
weakens. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week.
Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
at night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge of high pressure is across the west-central Atlantic from
a 1023 mb high near 30N55W to a 1026 mb high pressure over the
northern Florida peninsula. The latest ASCAT pass indicates that
a surface trough extends NE of Puerto Rico from 24N61W to 20N64W.
Fresh NE winds are located within 180 nm to the north and
northwest of the trough axis. Gentle anticyclonic winds are from
26.5N-31N along the ridge axis. Moderate NE winds cover the area
of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms extend NE
from the northern portion of the aforementioned surface trough
from 21N-27N between 56W-64W. Farther east, a cold front extends
from 32N36W to 29N38W, then continues as a dissipating cold front
to 25N47W. The boundary continues as a shear line from 25N47W to
23N61W. Fresh winds are on either side of the cold front north of
29N between 32W-42W. Strong NE winds are noted off the coast of
Morocco north of 30N and east of 13W. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the tropical Atlantic waters between Africaand
the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 5-7 ft across most of the Atlantic,
except 7-9 ft to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish across the western
Atlantic, south of 26N, through Sun as high pressure in the west-
central Atlantic weakens. The surface trough north of Puerto Rico
will drift eastward during the next couple days. A cold front
will move southward between Bermuda and northern Florida tonight
and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing cold front will move south of
30N on Mon. This system will bring strong to near gale force
winds north of 27N, progressing from west to east Mon into Tue
between 40W-70W. Gale force winds are possible north of 30N over
the central Atlantic, to the east of Bermuda. Seas of 15 to 25 ft
will follow the front.

$$
Hagen
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