[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale- force W
winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N
border to 29N between 42W and 70W Mon afternoon through Tue
morning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as
the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish
to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-26
ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue
night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 03N22W to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to
02S39W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
occurring from 01S-07N and east of 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

East to southeast flow around high pressure centered over the far
western Atlantic covers the Gulf basin this morning. Winds are
light to gentle over the northern portion of the basin north of
27N, and mainly moderate S of 27N. Seas generally range from 3 to
5 ft with 6 to 7 ft seas in the NW Gulf. No significant shower
activity is present as subsident upper- level anticyclonic flow
prevails over the Gulf.

A frontal boundary is expected to linger along the Texas coast
through Mon before lifting farther inland by Mon evening. Fresh
southerly flow will develop over the western and central Gulf by
Tue night into Wed. By Wed night, a cold front will push off the
Texas coast and move across the basin on Thu. The front will exit
the southeast Gulf by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge of high pressure is centered north of the Caribbean
along 28N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is helping to promote fresh
to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and fresh NE winds in
the Windward Passage and along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas generally range from
3 to 5 ft across the basin except 6 to 8 ft near the coast of
Colombia where the stronger winds are occurring. Scattered showers
are occurring over the southern Leeward Islands and ABC Islands.
Otherwise, only isolated showers are noted in the tradewind flow.

Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola into early this week. Fresh to
strong NE winds are also expected to pulse near the coast of
Colombia at night through Thu night. By Tue, fresh to strong winds
will build across the central Caribbean through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas
northern border.

A cold front extends into the discussion area near 31N60W to
29N67W to 30N74W. The front then becomes stationary there and
extends past 31N77W. A trough is northeast of the northern
Leewards Islands from 26N52W to 19N64W. Scattered showers are
within 90 n mi of both of these features. In the eastern
Atlantic, ridging from high pressure extends across the region. A
1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N46W. A second trough is
located from 28N31W to 24N35W. Moderate winds are noted north of
Hispaniola and just to the west of the central Atlantic trough,
otherwise light to gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic. Seas
range 4-6 ft.

The surface trough located north of the Leeward Islands will
drift eastward through Mon. A cold front will push southward
between Bermuda and northern Florida today. A stronger reinforcing
cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Fresh NE winds can be
expected across the region. Another cold front is expected to push
off the Florida coast on Thu night.

$$
Latto
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