[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W to 02N47W. Scattered
Moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-08N
between
08W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf of Mexico is
allowing for mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds to prevail.
Scatterometer data front this morning noted fresh to strong E
winds across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Scattered
clouds are noted along the coast of eastern Mexico, west of weak
surface trough extending from the Bay of Campeche to the SW
Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft in this region, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift eastward and
weaken through Sat. Southeast return flow across the western
Gulf will gradually expand across the entire Gulf through the
weekend, becoming fresh to strong in the northwest Gulf Sat
night. These winds diminish into early next week, as a cold
front stalls near the Texas coast Sun through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting
fresh to strong winds in the Windward passage as well as the
northern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted off the
coast of Colombia, with seas reaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas
are in the 6-8 ft range over the western half of the Caribbean
and  5-6 ft over the eastern half.

Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as
the  high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses of
fresh to strong winds will persist through the Windward Passage
and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia during the
overnight and early morning hours through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure is centered in the western Atlantic. A cold front
extends from 32N42W to 27N48W, then stationary to 20N65W. ASCAT
data from 1200 UTC reveals fresh to strong easterly winds
prevailing  west of the front to the Bahamas south of 30N. Seas
in the area of strongest winds are 10-12 ft. Moderate to fresh
winds and seas in the 7-9 ft range are north of 27N, west of the
front. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are elsewhere
across the discussion waters except for waters surrounding the
Canary Islands where winds become fresh to strong.

The stationary front south of 21N will dissipate later today.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as
high pressure in the central Atlantic weakens. A cold front will
move southward into the waters between Bermuda to northern
Florida Sat night and Sun. A reinforcing cold front will move
south of 30N on Mon.


$$
Mora
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