[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00N36W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted across the entire
equatorial Atalantic south of 06N between 05W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds prevail across the
entire Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 3-4 ft over the NE Gulf, and 4-7
ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift eastward and
weaken through Sat. Southeast return flow across the western
Gulf will gradually expand across the entire Gulf through the
weekend, becoming fresh to strong in the northwest Gulf Sat
night. These winds diminish into early next week, as a cold
front stalls near the Texas coast Sun through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

High pressure is centered north of the area near Bermuda. This
ridge of high pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds in
the Windward passage as well as the northern Caribbean. Fresh to
strong winds are also noted off the coast of Colombia, with
moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Caribbean
waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the western half of
the Caribbean and 5-6 ft over the eastern half.

Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as
high pressure north of the area weakens. Pulses of fresh to
strong winds will persist through the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N43W to 25N54W, then stationary to
19N73W. A ridge of high pressure is centered north of the area
near Bermuda. Fresh to strong easterly winds prevail west of the
front to the Bahamas south of 27N. Seas in the area of strongest
winds are 10-13 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and seas in the 7-9
ft range are north of 27N, west of the front. Moderate easterly
winds and seas of 6-8 ft are elsewhere across the discussion
waters.

West of 50W, the stationary front is expected to dissipate later
today. Winds and seas will diminish across the region through
Sun as the high pressure in the central Atlantic weakens. A cold
front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to
northern Florida Sat night and Sun. A reinforcing cold front
will move south of 30N on Mon.

$$
Mundell
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