[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W to 02N47W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south
of the monsoon trough and from 02N to 09N between 47W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are
in the 1-3 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will shift
eastward and weaken through Sat. Southeast return flow across the
western Gulf will gradually expand across the entire Gulf
through the weekend, becoming fresh to strong in the northwest
Gulf Sat night. These winds diminish into early next week, as a
cold front stalls near the coast of Texas Sun through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic. Fresh to
strong winds are noted in the Windward Passage as well as just
off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the western half of
the Caribbean, except to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. Seas are
in the 4-6 ft range over the eastern half of the Caribbean.

Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as
high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses of fresh
to strong winds will persist through the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong winds
are expected near the coast of Colombia during the overnight and
early morning hours through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic. A cold
front extends from 32N40W to 27N47W, then stationary to 21N65W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted within 120 nm north of the front
west of 52W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of
the front and the remainder of the waters west of 65W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail east of the front and north of 20N, with
moderate to fresh tradewinds south of 20N. Seas are in the 8-11
ft range over the open waters south of 28N and west of 55W. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft north of 28N and west of the front. East of the
front and north of 20N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range, with 6-8 ft
seas prevailing south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, winds and seas will diminish
across the region through Sun as high pressure in the central
Atlantic weakens. A developing surface trough located N of Puerto
Rico will shift eastward over the next couple of days. A cold
front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to
northern Florida Sat night and Sun. A reinforcing cold front will
move south of 30N on Mon.

$$
AL
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