[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights to 9 feet, are present from
11N to 11.5N between 74.5W and 75W. The gale-force wind
conditions will last during the late night and early morning
hours of today, Thursday. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Locally heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:

A stationary front passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to Hispaniola. Moisture associated with the front will remain in
place through Thursday, then diminishing by Friday. Fresh to
strong NE winds persist to the north of the front. These winds
will continue to move patches of low level moisture with
embedded showers across Hispaniola. It is possible that locally
heavy rain and gusty winds may be associated with the strongest
rainshowers. Warnings and watches have
been announced for several provinces, by the Weather Bureau of
the Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from
05N14W, to 04N20W, 01N30W, and to the Equator along 37W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong to widely scattered strong is from 04N to 05N
between 10W and the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 120 nm to
the north of the ITCZ. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 03N between 41W and 46W, and from 10N to 12N
between 58W and 63W, near Trinidad and Tobago, and parts of NE
Venezuela. Isolated moderate is elsewhere, from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, to the Florida Big
Bend, to SE Louisiana, to the Texas coastal waters, to the
coastal sections of Mexico near 20N97W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong high pressure off the Carolinas will shift slowly
eastward and support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in the Florida Straits, into
Saturday. Southeast
return flow in the western Gulf of Mexico will expand gradually
across the entire Gulf of Mexico, from Thursday through Friday,
and persist through the weekend, as the high pressure shifts
eastward. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and stall there through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to Hispaniola.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within
300 nm to the north and NW of the stationary front. Expect the
possibilityof patches of moisture, with embedded showers, in
eastern Cuba where locally heavy rain and gusty winds may occur.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, to 45 nm
to the south of the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 07N to 08N between 78W and 79W, near the
SW part of the border of Panama with Colombia. Please refer to
the forecasts and weather bulletins from your local
meteorological offices for more details.

Strong high pressure, building in the western Atlantic Ocean,
will support fresh to strong trade winds in the northwestern and
the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea through late
Friday. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force near the
coast of Colombia tonight. A surface
trough will develop across the Leeward Islands on Thursday, and
move westward, and linger over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through Saturday. The sea heights in the tropical Atlantic
Ocean to the east of the Leeward Islands and the Windward
Islands will remain at 8 feet or greater for the next several
days, in mixed NW swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N48W to 28N50W, and 24N60W,
to 20N68W, across Hispaniola to the west central coastal
sections of Haiti. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within
300 nm to the north and NW of the stationary front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the NW of the frontal boundary.
A 1035 mb high pressure center is near 34N72W.

A 1031 mb high pressure center near 35N25W. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 18N northward from the
stationary front eastward.

A stationary front extending from 22N65W to the N
central coast of Hispaniola is expected to drift northward and
meander through Thu before dissipating Thu night. Strong high
pressure building north of the front will support fresh to
strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south
of 28N continuing through Fri evening south of 27N. Looking
ahead, another cold front will move southward into the waters
between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night through Sun,
stalling along roughly 30N Sun night, then lifting northward as a
warm front through Mon.

$$
mt/ss
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