[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING:

Strong high pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues
to induce strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean
tonight. NE gale-force winds are occurring across a small area within
90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74.5W and 75W, where seas
are estimated to be to around 9 feet. These gale-force wind
conditions are expected to diminish to around 30 kt shortly after
sunrise. Strong tradewinds will continue across the waters
offshore of Colombia today. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Locally heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:

A stationary front passes through 21.5N65W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to NW coastal sections of Hispaniola. Abundant low level moisture
associated with the front will continue to be transported across
much of northern and interior portions of Hispaniola this morning
before the front begins to drift NW later today through Fri.
Scattered to numerous showers embedded in the strong NE winds
associate with the front will affect these area through today. showers
across Hispaniola. Locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds are
expected with some of these showers, and will maintain the
potential for flash flooding and river flooding, as well as
landslides across higher elevations. Flood warnings and watches
have been announced for several provinces, by the Weather Bureau
of the Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from
05N14W to the Equator along 37W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted along and within 180 nm S of the trough and
from 01S to 05N between 37W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic SW across the
Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico near 23N97W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Low clouds and
fog prevail across the nearshore waters of NE Mexico and Texas.
Strong easterly winds prevail across the Straits of Florida and
portions of the SE Gulf east of 90W where seas are 6-9 ft.

Strong high pressure over the W Atlantic will continue to shift
slowly eastward and support fresh to strong E winds over the
southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits through Fri night.
Southeast return flow across the western Gulf will gradually
expand across the entire Gulf through the weekend. The next cold
front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Sun and stall there
through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to NW Hispaniola then becomes diffuse to near Jamaica. Strong NE
winds induced by the pressure gradient between the high pressure
across the W Atlantic and the cold frontal remnants is producing
strong NE winds across much of the NW Caribbean east of 86W and
through the Windward Passage. Seas as high as 9-10 ft are seen in
the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate
rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the north and NW of the
stationary front. Expect the possibility of patches of moisture,
with embedded showers, across eastern Cuba where locally heavy
rain and gusty winds may occur.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the low level
wind flow.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, to 45 nm
to the south of the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean.

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh
to strong winds across the northwest and south- central Caribbean
through Fri morning, pulsing to gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through around sunrise this morning. A surface trough
will develop across the Leeward Islands Thu and move west and
linger over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sat. Seas
over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward
Islands will remain 8 ft or greater through Fri night in mixed NW
swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N47W to 26N55W, to across
NW Hispaniola. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within 300
nm to the north and NW of the stationary front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the NW of the frontal boundary, centered on a 1033 mb high
pressure center near 34N72W. Strong NE winds prevail between 28N
and the frontal boundary, where NW swell is combining with wind
driven seas to produce seas of 10-13 ft along the front.

East of the front, a 1030 mb high pressure center near 35N23W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 18N
northward from the stationary front eastward. Fresh NE to E
tradewinds prevail across the eastern Atlantic waters south of 24N
and across the Lesser Antilles. Seas across the tropical Atlantic
are generally 8-10 ft in mixed NW swell and easterly tradewind
swell.

The central Atlantic stationary front is expected to drift
northward and meander across the SE Bahamas through Thu night
before dissipating early Fri. Strong high pressure north of the
front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in
mixed NW and NE swell south of 28N today will continue through Fri
evening south of 27N. Another cold front will move southward into
the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night through
Sun, sinking southward to along roughly 25N Mon night.

$$
Stripling
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