[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:

Strong high pressure shifting slowly across the western Atlantic
is aiding in forcing NE to E gale-force winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Wave heights across this
area range from 8 to 10 feet based on recent altimeter data.
These gale-force winds conditions have diminished to 25-30 ft
late this morning, but will return again tonight through early
Thursday morning. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast,
from the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Locally heavy rain in Hispaniola:

The tail end of a stationary front extends across northern
Hispaniola. Moisture associated with the front will remain in
place through Thu, then diminishing by Fri. Fresh to strong NE
winds persist to the north of the front and will continue to
transport patches of low level moisture with embedded showers
across Hispaniola. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds could be
associated with the strongest showers. Warnings and watches have
been issued for several provinces by the Weather Service in
Dominican Republic. Please read the forecasts and bulletins that
are issued by your local meteorological agency for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N30W
to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-03N
between 24W-33W, while scattered showers are in the vicinity of
the ITCZ mainly west of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the W Atlantic across Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico producing a broad anticyclonic wind flow across
the region. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
west Atlantic and a stationary front that extends across the
west-central Atlantic is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds
over the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits, while moderate
to fresh southeasterly winds prevail elsewhere across the basin.
The winds over the SW gulf will persist through Thu night, while
the remainder of the area will continue under the same weather
regime through the weekend. The next cold front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf Sun and stall there through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across northern Hispaniola enhancing
convection. There is also a Gale Warning in effect for the
south-central Caribbean. Refer to the Special Features section
above for more details on both events.

Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds
in the lee of Cuba and E of the Isle of Youth to about 19N. These
winds are advecting patches of moisture, with embedded showers
over eastern Cuba where locally heavy rain and gusty winds may
occur. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean through midweek, with seas of 8-10 ft. This system
will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba,
and across the Windward passage through Thu night. Seas over the
tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands
will remain 8 ft or greater for the next several days in mixed
NW swell and E wind waves.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow dominates the
remainder of the Caribbean, particularly E of the above
mentioned frontal boundary. These patches of moisture will
produce scattered passing showers.

A surface trough extends from the Colombian/Panamanian low located
near 10N75W southwest into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Heavy
rainfall potential persist across parts of Colombia during the
next 24 hours. Please read the forecasts and bulletins that are
issued by your local meteorological agency for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 20N70W. Scattered
showers are associated with the frontal boundary. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the
frontal boundary, centered on a 1034 mb high located near
33N74W. The pressure gradient between the high and the
stationary frontal boundary is resulting in fresh to strong NE
winds from 28N southward to the frontal boundary and W of 65W.
Similar wind speeds are noted in the wake of the front S of 31N
and E of 65W. Seas of 8-12 ft are affecting the waters S of 27N
and E of the Bahamas.

East of the front, a 1030 mb high is centered just S of the Azores
near 35N21W and is inducing fresh tradewinds across the eastern
Atlantic south of 23N, with seas in the 7-10 ft range.

The frontal boundary is expected to drift northward and meander
through Thu. Strong high pressure north of the boundary will
support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and
NE swell south of 27N W of 65W through much of this week. Looking
ahead, the next cold front will move southward into the waters
between Bermuda to northeast Florida this weekend.

$$
ERA
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