[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 12 feet, are present
from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The gale-force wind
conditions will last until the middle of the morning, today, on
Wednesday. Gale-force winds are forecast, again, from Wednesday
night until Thursday morning. Please, read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the
website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and in Honduras:
A stationary front extends from Haiti, to 75 nm to the south of
Jamaica, to the border of NE Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. The
front is expected to remain nearly stationary, and weaken during
the next couple of days. Strong NE winds will persist to the
north of the front in the NW Caribbean Sea, and through the
Windward Passage to Jamaica, into the middle of this week.
Embedded low level clouds and rainshowers, along and behind the
front, will stream southwestward across central sections of the
mountainous interior of Hispaniola, through this evening.
Rainshowers, and some thunder, are possible. This rainfall is
capable of producing areas of
flooding in rivers and streams, and landslides in the higher
elevations of Hispaniola. The tail end of the front is expected
to focus similar conditions in northern Honduras, where locally
heavy
rainfall, in showers and thunderstorms, is likely through early
Wednesday. Please read the forecasts and bulletins that are
issued by your local meteorological agency for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N17W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to 01N29W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 03N from
05W eastward, and from 02N southward between 20W and 22W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 40W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 10N southward between 40W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, to SE Louisiana, to
the coastal waters of the upper Texas Gulf coast, to the coastal
sections of Mexico near 20N97W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will
shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong NE to E winds
over the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits through mid
week. Winds and seas will diminish later in the week as the
ridge slides eastward. Looking ahead, southeast return flow will
increase over the northeast Gulf late Sat, then diminish Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Haiti, to 75 nm to the south of
Jamaica, to the border of NE Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm
to the south of the frontal boundary between 70W and Honduras.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other possible
rainshowers, are to the north of the frontal boundary.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond
the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 150 nm to the south of the surface trough, between 73W
and 78W, in parts of Colombia and in the coastal waters of
Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and weather bulletins
from your local meteorological offices for more details.

Strong high pressure building over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to gale-force
near the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. A stationary
front extends from central Hispaniola to south of Jamaica to
northeastern coast of Honduras. The front is expected to remain
nearly stationary and weaken over the next couple of days, but
strong NE winds will persist north of the front into midweek
over
the NW Caribbean, and through the Windward Passage to Jamaica.
Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater for the next
several
days in mixed N swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N45W to 28N50W, and 26N54W. The
front becomes stationary, from 26N54W, to 23N60W and 20N70W, to
Haiti, to 75 nm to the south of Jamaica, to the border of NE
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers,
are within 300 nm to the north and northwest of the frontal
boundary.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the NW of the frontal boundary.

A 1030 mb high pressure center near 34N29W. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 18N northward from the
frontal boundary eastward.

A stationary front extending from 21.5N65W to the N
central coast of Hispaniola is expected to drift northward and
meander through Thu. Strong high pressure building north of the
front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in
mixed NW and NE swell south of 27N through much of this week.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move southward into the
waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night and Sun.

$$
mt/ss
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net