[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:

Strong high pressure shifting slowly across the western Atlantic
is aiding in forcing NE to E gale-force winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 74W and 76W. Wave heights across this
area range from 10 to 13 feet. These gale-force winds conditions
are expected to diminish to 25-30 ft by mid morning today, but
will return again tonight through early Thursday morning. Please,
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and in Honduras:

A stationary front continues from Haiti, to just south of
Jamaica, to extreme NE Honduras. The front is expected to remain
nearly stationary, and weaken during the next couple of days.
Strong NE winds will persist to the north of the front in the NW
Caribbean Sea, and through the Windward Passage to Jamaica,
through Thu. Broken to overcast low level clouds and embedded
rainshowers, along and behind the front zone, will stream
southwestward across north central coastal sections of Hispaniola
this morning and across coastal portions of Honduras and northern
Nicaragua. This rainfall is capable of producing areas of flooding
in rivers and streams, and landslides in the higher elevations of
Hispaniola. The front is expected to begin to drift northward and
away from the north coast of Hispaniola today and reduce heavy
rainfall potential there later today. Please read the forecasts
and bulletins that are issued by your local meteorological agency
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07.5N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
01S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 03.5N between 17W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the W Atlantic across NW Florida to
coastal sections of Mexico near 21N97W. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient induces
between the high pressure and a stalled cold front across the NW
Caribbean is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the
southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits, and is expected to persist
through Thu night. Southeast return flow across the western Gulf
will gradually expand across the entire Gulf Thu through Fri and
persist through the weekend. The next cold front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf Sun and stall there through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the north central coast of Hispaniola
to just south of Jamaica to extreme NE Honduras. String high
pressure across the western Atlantic is inducing fresh to strong
NE winds across the entire NW Caribbean north of the front and
through the Windward Passage to beyond Jamaica. Seas has built to
as high as 10 ft across this area. Widely scattered moderate
rainshowers are within 120 nm to the south of the frontal boundary
between 70W and Nicaragua. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and other possible rainshowers, are to the north of the
frontal boundary.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving S-SW with the
low level wind flow.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond
the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Heavy rainfall potential persist across northern portions of South
America during the next 24 hours. Please refer to the forecasts
and weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for
more details.

Strong high pressure building over the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to gale-force near the coast of
Colombia and Wed night. A stationary front extends from central
Hispaniola to just south of Jamaica to northeastern coast of
Honduras. The front is expected to meander and weaken over the
next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist north of the
front through Thu over the NW Caribbean, and through the Windward
Passage to Jamaica. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east
of the Leeward and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater
for the next several days in mixed NW swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N54W to 22N65W to the north
central coast of Hispaniola. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are within 300 nm to
the north and northwest of the frontal boundary.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the NW of the frontal boundary, centered on a 1033 mb high
located near 32N72W. The pressure gradient between the high and
the stall frontal boundary is producing fresh to strong NE winds
from 28N southward to the frontal boundary. Seas just to the north
of the front and west of 65W are 11-14 ft.

East of the front, a 1028 mb high is centered near 34N27W and is
inducing fresh tradewinds across the eastern Atlantic south of
23N, where seas are 7-10 ft.

The stationary is expected to drift northward and meander through
Thu. Strong high pressure building north of the front will
support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and
NE swell south of 27N through much of this week. Looking ahead,
another cold front will move southward into the waters between
Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night through Sun.

$$
Stripling
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