[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building off the
Carolinas across the western Atlantic and low pressure over
northern Colombia is resulting in a tight pressure gradient over
the south-central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds off the
coast of northwest Colombia will increase back to gale force this
evening and persist into Wed morning. Similar conditions are
forecast Wed night into early Thu. Seas will build to 10-14 ft
around sunrise each morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient offshore of
Morocco will support N-NE gale force winds in the Agadir high
seas area through 00 UTC Wed. Please refer to the latest Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at the website www.meteofrance.com
/previsions-meteo- marine/_bulletin/grandlarge_metarea2 for more
details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: A stationary front
extends from central Hispaniola to south of Jamaica to the
northern coast of Honduras. The front is expected to remain
nearly stationary and weaken over the next couple of days, but
strong NE winds will persist north of the front into mid-week
over the northwest Caribbean, and through the Windward Passage to
Jamaica. Embedded low clouds and showers along and behind the
front will stream southwestward across central portions of the
mountainous interior of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening, to produce periods of numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms. This rainfall is capable of producing areas of
river and stream flooding and landslides across higher elevations
of Hispaniola. The tail end of the front is expected to focus
similar conditions across northern Honduras, where locally heavy
rainfall in showers and thunderstorms is likely through early
Wed. Please read forecasts and bulletins that are issued by your
local meteorological agency for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-05N between 17W-28W,
and from 00N-07N between 35W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure is located northeast of the basin offshore of
the Carolinas with it extending west-southwest across the
Mississippi Valley. A surface trough is analyzed west of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 19N93W.
Scattered showers are noted with this trough. Earlier
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the southeast
Gulf, even near gale in the Straits of Florida, with mainly
moderate to locally fresh return flow elsewhere in the basin. Seas
are 7-10 ft in the southeast Gulf, highest in the Straits of
Florida, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

The high pressure extending across the southeastern U.S. will
shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong NE-E winds over
the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits through mid week.
Winds and seas will diminish later in the week as the ridge slides
eastward. Looking ahead, southeast return flow will increase over
the northeast Gulf late Sat, then diminish Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the Caribbean Sea offshore of the northwest Colombia
coast, and for the potential for Heavy Rainfall across Hispaniola
and Honduras.

A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola to south of
Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras. Strong NE winds are
spilling into the northwest Caribbean in the lee of Cuba to the
Yucatan Channel, and also through the Windward Passage to well
south of Jamaica. These winds are the result of a strong high
pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh
trades are seen elsewhere. Transverse high clouds are noted over
the southern Caribbean due to moderate to strong westerly winds
aloft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is seen
elsewhere.

Seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will remain 8 ft or
greater through the end of the week in mixed N swell and E wind
waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure of 1035 mb centered southeast of Cape
Lookout, North Carolina near 33N74W extends west-southwest across
southern Georgia. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic
from 32N47W to 22N63W where it continues as a stationary front to
across central Hispaniola. Earlier scatterometer data showed
fresh to strong NE-E flow south of 27N, strongest east of the
central Bahamas and in the Straits of Florida, with gentle to
moderate NE flow north of 27N. Seas are 8-13 ft in fresh NE swell
south of 27N, and 5-8 ft north of 27N, higher in the Straits of
Florida. A wide-band of low and middle clouds with scattered
showers is associated with the front. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds are observed behind the frontal boundary. This cloudiness,
with isolated showers, is affecting the northwest Bahamas, south
Florida and the Florida Keys, where breezy conditions prevail.

The front is expected to drift northward and meander through Thu.
Strong high pressure building north of the front will support
fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell
south of 27N through much of this week. Looking ahead, another
cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to
northeast Florida Sat night and Sun.

East of the front, a 1029 mb high pressure is located near
34N29W. EArlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally
strong trade winds between the southern periphery of the high and
the ITCZ. Seas are 8-11 ft in a mix of NW swell and easterly
tradewind swell south of 25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
and 5-8 ft north of there.

$$
Lewitsky
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