[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0810 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING:

Strong high pressure building off the middle Atlantic coast of the
U.S. across the western Atlantic has increased the pressure
gradient across the Caribbean, and induced NE-E gale-force winds
within 90 nm of the coast of NW Colombia tonight. Wave heights
there are in the 10-12 ft range. Winds will diminish below gale-
force this morning, and then increase again tonight to gale-force.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: The frontal boundary
that extends from the N coast of Hispaniola southwestward across
Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras will stall today through this
evening before weakening and drifting NW tonight through Thu.
Strong high pressure north of the front is inducing strong NE
winds across the regional Atlantic between the front and 27N and
across much of the NW Caribbean. Embedded low clouds and showers
along and behind the front will stream southwestward across
central portions of the mountainous interior of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti through this evening, to produce periods of
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. This rainfall is capable
of producing areas of river and stream flooding and landslides
across higher elevations of Hispaniola. The tail end of the front
is expected to focus similar conditions across northern Honduras,
where locally heavy rainfall in showers and thunderstorms is
likely through early Wednesday. Please, read forecasts and
bulletins that are issued by your local meteorological agency, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, crossing
the Equator along 26W, to 01S47W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N southward
to 01S between 12W and the mouth of the Amazon Basin along 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1034 mb high pressure centered ove coastal Georgia and South
Carolina extends southward across the Florida and the Gulf of
Mexico, producing anticyclonic wind spanning the basin. Strong
easterly winds prevail across the SE and south central portions of
the Gulf south of 27N and east of 89W, where seas are currently 6
to 9 ft except to 10 ft in the Straits of Florida.

Strong high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will shift slowly
eastward and support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the SE
Gulf and the Florida Straits through late Wed as a weakening cold
front stalls across the NW Caribbean. As the ridge slides eastward
Thu and Fri, fresh SE return flow will develop across much of the
Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes diagonally through central Hispaniola to
Jamaica then to the NE coast of Honduras. Strong NE winds are
spilling into the NW Caribbean in the lee of Cuba to the Yucatan
Channel, and also through the Windward Passage to well south of
Jamaica. Clusters of scattered to numerous showers have moved from
central Hispaniola across SW Haiti and into the adjacent Caribbean
waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
along the frontal boundary from the coastal waters SW of Jamaica
to NE portions of Honduras.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 70W eastward.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond the
Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Numerous strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 75W
and 78W. A robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is
helping to generate numerous strong precipitation in parts of
western Colombia. Periods of heavy rains are expected in western
Colombia through early Tuesday. It is likely that this rain may
cause localized flooding. Please refer to the forecasts of your
local meteorological agency for more details.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean through midweek, as strong high pressure builds across
the western Atlantic. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force
near the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. A stalling front
extends from central Hispaniola across Jamaica to the NE coast of
Honduras. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary and
weaken over the next couple of days, but strong NE winds will
persist N of the front into midweek over the NW Caribbean, and
through the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Seas over the Tropical N
Atlantic waters will remain 8 ft or greater for the next several
days in mixed N swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A west Atlantic cold front passes through 31N50W to north
sections of Hispaniola. 1034 mb high pressure across coastal
Georgia and South Carolina extends south and southeastward behind
the front and is producing strong NE winds from 27N to the front,
where high seas have built to 8-16 ft. Broken to overcast low and
middle clouds with scattered showers extend to 180 nm behind the
front between Hispaniola and 31N.

A 1030 mb high pressure center near 34N33W. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 25N northward to beyond 31N
to the east of the cold front. Strong tradewinds prevail across
the Tropical Atlantic east of 50W where seas are 8-12 ft in a mix
of NW swell and easterly tradewind swell.

The front is expected to stall roughly from 22N65W to the NE
coast of the Dominican Republic this afternoon, then drift NW and
meander tonight through Thu. Strong high pressure building N of
the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in
mixed NW and NE swell south of 27N through much of this week.

$$
Stripling
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