[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 09 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, are present from 10.5N to 12N between 74W and 76W.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: The current frontal
boundary, that extends from NW Hispaniola southwestward to the
northern adjacent waters of Jamaica, will stall in the Dominican
Republic, from tonight through Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall
is forecast, with the potential for localized flooding,
particularly for northwestern parts of the Dominican Republic,
from late tonight through Tuesday night. The tail end of the
same front is stalling out in northern Honduras, where locally
heavy rainfall also is likely through early Wednesday. Please,
read forecasts and bulletins that are issued by your National
Meteorological Service, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 09N16W, 04N18W and 02N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N20W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 01S33W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong, is from 05N southward from South America
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through SE Georgia, to 29N88W, to 28N95W,
to the coastal sections of Mexico near 20N97W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong high pressure in the southeastern U.S.A. will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico, and in
the Florida Straits through midweek, as a cold front stalls
across the NW Caribbean Sea. Fresh SE return flow will develop
across much of the Gulf of Mexico, as the ridge slides eastward
during the latter parts of this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 32N54W to 25N60W, 20N70W, across the
northern sections of Hispaniola, to the NE coastal waters of
Jamaica. The front becomes stationary, and it continues to
18N80W, to 15N85W in Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 120 nm to the south of the frontal
boundary between 70W and Honduras. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and other possible rainshowers, are to the
north of the frontal boundary.

NE winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from
8 feet to 11 feet, cover the areas that are from 09N to 13N
between 72W and 78W.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 70W, eastward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond
the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from 06N to 09N between 75W
and 78W. A robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is
helping to generate numerous strong precipitation in parts of
western Colombia. Periods of heavy rains are expected in western
Colombia through early Tuesday. It is likely that this rain may
cause localized flooding. Please refer to the forecasts of your
local meteorological offices for more details.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south
central Caribbean Sea through midweek. The wind speeds are
expected to pulse to gale-force near the coast of Colombia for
the next several nights. A stalling front extends from NW
Hispaniola across Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras. The front
is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken during the
next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist poleward
of the front into midweek in the NW Caribbean Sea, and through
the Windward Passage. The sea heights in the Tropical N Atlantic
Ocean will remain 8 feet or greater for the next several days in
mixed N swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N54W to 25N60W, 20N70W, across the
northern sections of Hispaniola, to the NE coastal waters of
Jamaica. The front becomes stationary, and it continues to
18N80W, to 15N85W in Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 120 nm to the south of the frontal
boundary between 70W and Honduras. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are within
90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N53W, to
26N60W, to 21N70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the NW of the cold front.

A 1032 mb high pressure center near 34N34W. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 18N northward from the
cold front eastward.

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 22N65W to the north central
coast of the Dominican Republic. The front is expected to stall
roughly from 22N63W to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and
dissipate gradually by midweek. Strong high pressure will build
to the N of the front, and support fresh to strong N to NE winds
with large seas in NE swell south of 27N through much of this
week.

$$
MT/SS
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