[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING:

Strong high pressure building off the middle Atlantic coast of the
U.S. across the western Atlantic has increased the pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea supporting strong to near gale force winds
near the coast of Colombia this morning as noted per recent scatterometer
pass. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-
central Caribbean through midweek. Winds are expected to pulse to
gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight, with seas building
to 12 or 13 ft. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast,
from the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: A stalling front extends
from central Hispaniola across Jamaica to the NE coast of Honduras.
The front is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken over
the next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist N of the
front into midweek over the NW Caribbean, and through the Windward
Passage to Jamaica. Embedded low clouds and showers along and
behind the front will stream southwestward across central portions
of the mountainous interior of the Dominican Republic and Haiti
through this evening, to produce periods of numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms. This rainfall is capable of producing areas of
river and stream flooding and landslides across higher elevations
of Hispaniola. The tail end of the front is expected to focus
similar conditions across northern Honduras, where locally heavy
rainfall in showers and thunderstorms is likely through early
Wednesday. Please, read forecasts and bulletins that are issued by
your local meteorological agency, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
00N30W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N-06N between 13W-16W, within about 30 nm N of a
line from 04N16N to 04N20W to 03N28W, and from 01S-02N between
44W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1035 mb centered just off South Carolina
extends southward across Florida, the Florida Keys and the Gulf
of Mexico, producing fresh to strong easterly winds across the
Gulf waters, particularly S of 27N and E of 87W. These winds are
also affecting the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to locally fresh SE winds area noted over the NW Gulf,
with gentle to moderate E winds over the SW part of the basin.
Seas are currently in the 6 to 9 ft range within the area of the
strongest winds, except to 10 ft in the Straits of Florida.

The strong high pressure will shift slowly eastward and support
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and the Florida
Straits through late Wed. As the ridge slides eastward Thu and
Fri, fresh SE return flow will develop across much of the Gulf
waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stalling front extends from central Hispaniola across Jamaica
to the NE coast of Honduras. A wide-band of clouds with embedded
showers and possible thunderstorms is associated with the front.
Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Strong
NE winds are spilling into the NW Caribbean in the lee of Cuba to
the Yucatan Channel, and also through the Windward Passage to well
south of Jamaica. These winds are the result of a strong high
pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea. Transverse high clouds
are noted over the southern Caribbean due to moderate to strong
westerly winds aloft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow is seen elsewhere. Seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters
will remain 8 ft or greater for the next several days in mixed N
swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A west Atlantic cold front passes through 31N50W and extends to
north sections of Hispaniola. A strong 1035 mb high pressure
located just off South Carolina follows the front and is producing
strong NE winds from 27N to the front, with seas of 12-13 ft E of
the Bahamas. A wide-band of low and middle clouds with scattered
showers is associated with the front. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds are observed behind the frontal boundary. This cloudiness,
with isolated showers, is affecting the NW Bahamas, south Florida
and the Florida Keys, where breezy conditions prevail. The front
is expected to drift northward and meander through Thu. Strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to
strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of
27N and W of 65W through much of this week.

E of the front, a 1031 mb high pressure is located near 32N33W.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong trade
winds between the southern periphery of the high and the ITCZ.
Seas are 8-10 ft in a mix of NW swell and easterly tradewind swell
S of 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

$$
GR
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