[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 1008 mb low pres
near 30.5N65.5W to the southern Bahamas then across eastern Cuba
near 20.5N75W. An ASCAT pass from 0100 UTC revealed ongoing gale-
force conditions to near 40 kt north of 28N and across the
western semicircle of the low pressure center. The cold front
will move SE today, while the low slides NE along the front and
deepens across the western Atlantic. High pressure NW of the
region will act to increase northerly winds behind the front. Gale
conditions will lift N of the area by early afternoon.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building behind a
cold front moving SE across the western Atlantic the next few days
will increase the pressure gradient across the south-central
Caribbean through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia are expected to increase to gale force tonight, and then
again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the
period of peak winds.

For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas
forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

A cold front extending from central Cuba SW to Belize adjacent
waters will reach Hispaniola Mon night and stall over the island
through Tue evening. Heavy rainfall is forecast with the
potential for flooding.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 10N14W
to 03.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate convection from 00N-06N
between 10W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure building across the eastern United States
extends a ridge S into the Gulf which is currently supporting
fresh winds over the eastern half of the basin and gentle to
moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. Seas are 5 to 9 ft E of 90W, with
the highest seas being in the SE portion of the Gulf. In the
western half of the basin, seas range between 3 to 6 ft. Strong
dry air subsidence continues to support mainly clear skies, except
over the far western Gulf W of 92W where shallow moisture and
diffluent flow at the lower levels support areas of overcast low
clouds with showers along the coast and adjacent waters of
Mexico.

High pressure will build across the Gulf early this week behind
a cold front in the NW Caribbean. This will result in strong NE
to E winds across the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. By Thu, SE
return flow will develop across the northern and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
the coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends across eastern Cuba SW to the Gulf of Honduras.
Widely scattered light showers are seen along and NW of the front
across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds behind the front will
increase to fresh to strong N to NE winds today as the front
continues to move slowly SE into Mon evening. The front is
forecast to stall from the Dominican Republic to Honduras Mon
night through Tue evening, bringing periods of heavy rain and
potential flooding to Hispaniola.

Mainly N to NE moderate to fresh winds are ahead of the front,
while moderate to fresh trades are occurring over the central and
eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the Colombian
coast. These conditions will prevail through Thu, with fresh to
locally strong winds expanding in areal coverage Tue and Wed.
Strong high pressure building behind the cold front will bring
strong to near gale force winds affecting the Windward Passage and
Jamaica adjacent waters Mon through Wed.

Of note...A robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is
generating numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of
Colombia. Week-long periods of intermittent heavy rains are
expected over Ecuador, Colombia, and northern Peru. Rainfall
totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and
SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected
over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale event in the western Atlantic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm SE of the
cold front across the western Atlantic to the north of 25N.
Strong N wind behind the front will prevail through tonight as
the low moves NE and out of the area and the front shifts SE. By
Tue, the front will stall from 22N65W to the Dominican Republic.
Strong high pressure will build north of the front and support
strong NE winds south of 26N into Wed night.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores
high, which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds east of 60W. Seas are 7 to 12 ft in primarily easterly
tradewind swell.

$$
Stripling
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