[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N60W to 27N63W
to the Windward Passage. A post-frontal surface trough is from
31N63W to 27N66W. Recent ASCAT passes from 08/1312 and 08/1426
UTC reveal near gale to gale force NW winds north of 30N and
within 90 nm to the W of the surface trough. Seas in the gale
area are analyzed to currently be 12 to 16 ft. As the front moves
eastward, expect gale conditions to lift N of the forecast area
(N of 31N) by early this afternoon.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building behind a
cold front moving SE across the western Atlantic will increase
the pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean through
midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected
to increase to gale force tonight, and then again Tue night. Seas
will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds.

Refer the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the Gale Warnings.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: A cold front extending
from the Windward Passage to the NW coast of Honduras will reach
Hispaniola tonight and stall over the island through Tue evening.
Heavy rainfall is forecast with the potential for localized
flooding, particularly for northwestern portions of the Dominican
Republic late tonight through Tue night. The tail end of the same
front is stalling out over northern Honduras, where locally heavy
rainfall is also likely through early Wed. See products issued by
your National Meteorological Service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate convection is south of
the monsoon trough from 01N-09N between 07W-18W. Scattered
moderate convection is also seen within 120 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 19W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong 1036 mb high pressure centered near Asheville North
Carolina extends a ridge S into the Gulf which is currently
supporting fresh winds over the eastern half of the basin and
moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong
NE to E winds over SE Gulf. Recent buoy observations from the SE
Gulf support these winds and have also measured seas around 8 ft.
Seas are estimated to currently be 6 to 9 ft in the SE Gulf and
south-central Gulf, highest in the Florida Straits. In the
northern and western Gulf, seas are 3 to 6 ft. Strong dry air
subsidence continues to support mainly clear skies in the NE
Gulf. Over the SW Gulf, shallow moisture is supporting areas of
overcast low clouds with showers.

Strong high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and the Florida
Straits through midweek. As the ridge slides eastward during the
latter parts of this week, fresh SE return flow will develop
across much of the northern and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea and on the heavy
rainfall for portions of Hispaniola and Honduras.

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to 19N79W. The
front is stationary from 19N79W to the north coast of Honduras
near 16N87W. Scattered showers are along portions of the front,
including near the N coast of Haiti, near the N coast of
Honduras, and just to the west of the Cayman Islands. Relatively
dry conditions prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean.
Scattered moderate tstorms are seen over portions of eastern
Panama and adjacent waters south of 10.5N between 77W-82W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force NE winds to the
north of the front, south of Cuba. The data shows moderate trades
in the E Caribbean with fresh winds in the central Caribbean.
However, strong NE winds are seen in the south-central to SW
basin near the coasts of Colombia and eastern Panama. Seas is the
NW Caribbean are averaging 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will persist across
the south-central Caribbean through midweek, with gale-force
winds expected to pulse off the coast of Colombia for the next
several nights. Elsewhere, the front is forecast to stall from
the Dominican Republic to Honduras tonight through Tue evening,
bringing periods of heavy rain and potential flooding to northern
Hispaniola as well as northern Honduras. The front will weaken
over the next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist
north of the front into midweek over the NW Caribbean and through
the Windward Passage, with locally near gale force possible from
the Windward Passage to the Jamaica adjacent waters through Wed.

Of note...a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is
currently generating numerous showers and tstorms over western
Colombia. Periods of heavy rains are expected over western
Colombia through early Tue. These rains are likely to cause
localized flooding. Please refer to the forecasts of your local
meteorological offices for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N60W to 27N63W to the Windward
Passage. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection
along and within 120 nm SE of the front, north of 26N and east of
63W. Isolated showers are occurring along portions of the
remainder of the front. A recent ASCAT pass reveals near gale
force S-SW winds just ahead of the front, north of 28N. A
post-frontal surface trough is analyzed from 31N63W to 27N66W.
>From 30N-31N, near gale force SW winds are between the front and
the surface trough, while near gale to gale force NW winds are
within 90 nm to the W of the surface trough. Please see the
Special Features section for more details about the ongoing Gale
Warning in this area. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail
elsewhere over the W Atlantic between the cold front and Florida,
with seas 8-13 ft.

For the forecast, the front will move eastward through tonight,
reaching along 32N50W to 22N65W to the Dominican Republic early
Tue. The portion west of 65W will stall on Tue and gradually
dissipate through midweek. Strong high pressure will build behind
the front and support fresh to strong N to NE winds with large
seas in the 8-12 ft range much of this week, south of 27N between
60W and the Bahamas.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores
High, currently at 1034 mb centered near 34N34W. The high is
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds from
05N-26N between 20W-53W. Seas in this area are 7 to 12 ft in
primarily easterly trade wind swell.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net