[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from 32N62W to
the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. An ASCAT pass
from 0000 UTC revealed ongoing gale-force conditions north of
27N and on the western edge of a 1011 mb low pressure center
located along the cold front, near 30N67W. The cold front will
move SE through Mon, while the low slides NE along the front and
deepens across the western Atlantic through tonight. High
pressure NW of the region will act to increase northerly winds
behind the front. Gale conditions will lift N of the area by Mon
morning.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High-pressure building behind a cold
front moving SE across the western Atlantic the next few days
will increase the pressure gradient across the south-central
Caribbean tonight through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force Mon
night, and then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher
during the period of peak winds.

For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas
forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

A cold front extending from central Cuba SW to Belize adjacent
waters will reach Hispaniola Mon night and stall over the island
through Tue evening. Heavy rainfall is forecast with the
potential for flooding.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 10N14W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N27W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection from
00N-07N between 15W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure building along the eastern United States
extending a ridge SW into the gulf which is currently supporting
NE moderate to fresh winds over the eastern half of the basin
and gentle to moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. Seas are 5 to 8
ft E of 90W, the highest seas being in the SE portion of the
gulf where strong NE winds are developing. In the western half
of the basin, seas range between 3 to 6 ft. Strong dry air
subsidence continues to support mainly clear skies, except over
the far western gulf W of 94W where shallow moisture and
diffluent flow at the lower levels support a line of showers
along the coast and adjacent waters of Mexico.

In the wake of a cold front high pressure will build into the
Gulf early this week. This will result in strong NE to E winds
across the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. By Thu, SE return flow
will develop across the northern and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
the coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends across central/eastern Cuba SW to waters
adjacent to Honduras. There is no convection associated with
this front at the time. Moderate to fresh winds behind the front
will increase to fresh to strong N to NE winds tonight as the
front continue to move SE into Mon evening. The front is
forecast to stall from the Dominican Republic to Honduras Mon
night through Tue evening, potentially bringing heavy rain and
flooding to Hispaniola.

Mainly NE moderate to fresh winds are ahead of the front, while
moderate to fresh trades are occurring over the central and
eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the Colombian
coast. These conditions will prevail through Thu, with fresh to
locally strong winds expanding in areal coverage Tue and Wed.
Strong high pressure building behind the cold front will bring
strong to near gale force winds affecting the Windward Passage
and Jamaica adjacent waters Mon through Wed.

Of note... A robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation
is generating numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of
Colombia. Week-long periods of intermittent heavy rains are
expected over Ecuador, Colombia, and northern Peru. Rainfall
totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador
and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are
expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of
Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local
meteorological offices for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale event in the western Atlantic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm east of
the cold front associated with the 1011 mb low extending from
32N62W to the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N77W.
Strong N wind behind the front will prevail through Mon night as
the low moves NE and out of the area. By Tue, the front will
stall from 22N65W to the Dominican Republic. Strong high
pressure will build north of the front and support strong NE
winds south of 27N into Wed night.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores
high, which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds east of 50W. Seas are 7 to 12 ft with a component of
longer period NW swell.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net