[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09N13.5W
to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 90 of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf, as a weak
surface ridge persists across the region. The weak pressure
gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate, which is
keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area. A cold
front extends from a 1015 mb low south of Louisiana and continues
along southwest along the Texas coast into Mexico.

Developing low pressure system across the NW Gulf will deepen
and move E-SE across the Gulf through this evening. High pressure
building behind the front will support strong east winds across
the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front from eastern Cuba to the central
Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate today. Fresh to occasionally
strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun.
Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night
and Tue night. A cold front will move into the northwest
Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually stall from
Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas
will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 25N65W to eastern Cuba and will
drift N and weaken today. Winds north of the front will shift
easterly today, and increase north of 27N late. A developing low
pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda Sat
night through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale force
winds. The low will drag a cold front across the region through
early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon,
supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

$$
TORRES/AL
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