[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are
noted 180 nm southeast of the monsoon trough between 00N-04N
between 39W-49W on either side of the ITCZ. Scattered showers
are also noted between 02S-05N between 29W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf tonight, as
a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak
pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate,
which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area.
A cold front enters the northern Gulf from the Florida/ Alabama
Border to north central Florida. Satellite and radar imagery
shows scattered showers streaming across the north central Gulf
from 26N to 30N and east of 90W. To the west, a cold front
extends from a 1012 mb low in northeast Texas and continues along
southwest along the Texas coast into Mexico. The front will enter
the western Gulf early tonight.

A low pressure system is expected develop in the NW Gulf
tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat
evening. High pressure building behind the front will support
strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through early
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but
no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry
air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts
light to moderate easterly winds on either side of the stationary
front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across the
southern portion of the Caribbean while light and gentle north
of 15N. Scattered showers are also possible over the eastern
Caribbean Sea near a weak surface trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with
upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia.

A weakening stationary will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean
through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of
Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold front will move into
the northwest Caribbean late Sat night through Sun, and gradually
stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and
building seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean.


Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to 22N71W and then to
eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead of the
front N of 21N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front with moderate
north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of strong 1032 mb high pressure centered near the
Azores. The associated ridge covers the waters between the
Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are
transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near
South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde
Islands.

In the forecast, the stationary front will drift N and weaken
Sat. Winds north of the front will become easterly Sat, and
increase north of 27N late Sat. A developing low pressure system
will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night
through Sun night, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds.
The low will drag a cold front across the region through early
next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon,
supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

$$
Torres
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