[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N61W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S51W. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm on either
sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf this evening, as
a weak surface ridge persists across the region. The weak
pressure gradient is allowing winds to remain gentle to moderate,
which is keeping seas generally 2-3 ft across most of the area.
No significant convection is evident from radar or satellite data.

A low pressure system is expected develop over the NW Gulf
tonight, then deepen and move E-SE across the Gulf through Sat
evening. High pressure building behind the front will support
strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sat night through late
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a frontal boundary remains stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary, but
no convection is occurring at the moment due to widespread dry
air in the mid- and upper-levels. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate northerly winds just north of the front, while light to
gentle winds prevail south of the front. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds prevail elsewhere, with highest winds noted within
90 nm north of the Colombia coast. Scattered showers are also
possible over the eastern Caribbean Sea near a weak surface
trough. Seas range 2-5 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of
Colombia.

The stationary front will dissipate through Sat. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will pulse in the southern Caribbean
through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A
cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Sat night
through Sun, and gradually stall from Hispaniola to Honduras
Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
over the western Caribbean.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N58W to 24N68W and then becomes
stationary to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along
and ahead of the front N of 23N. Seas are 5-8 ft near the front
with moderate north winds behind it and fresh to strong SW winds
ahead of it.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of strong high pressure centered near the Azores. The
associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and
the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper
level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to
western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

The cold front will weaken and stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba
early Sat. Northerly winds will follow the front, then shift
from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N late Sat. A developing
low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to
Bermuda Sat night through Sun night, accompanied by strong to
near-gale force winds. The low will drag a cold front across the
region through early next week. High pressure will build north of
27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue
night.

$$
ERA/JPC
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