[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure currently over the Gulf of
Mexico will deepen and move rapidly to the east across Florida
today and into the western Atlantic by tonight. Strong northerly
winds following the front will increase to gale force by Sun night
over Atlantic waters southwest of Bermuda, from 27N-31N between
65W-70W, with 8 to 12 ft seas. For more information, please refer
the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N16W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
00N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N-08N between 08W-15W, and from
00N-03N between 22W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across central Florida and enters the
east central Gulf of Mexico near Tampa, Florida. The front
continues westward to a 1012 mb low pressure area centered near
27.5N86.5W, then continues as a cold front to 24N92.5W then
southwestward to 20N97W near Pozo Rico, Mexico. An upper
disturbance supporting the low pressure is also supporting a few
showers along the stationary front between the low pressure and
the coast of Florida. A few showers are also likely ongoing near
the Yucatan Channel. Buoy and platform data indicate fresh N to NE
winds behind the front over the northwest and north central Gulf,
although stronger winds may be happening near the Louisiana
coast, perhaps off northern Tamaulipas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over
the northwest and north central Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate breezes are noted with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the low will shift E-SE across the Gulf through
this evening, dragging the front across the Gulf. High pressure
building behind the front will support strong east winds across
the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
eastern Cuba to near Banco Chinchorro off the Mexican coast.
Judging from the surface observations from Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands, the front is dissipating. A persistent surface trough
reaches from off the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia to near Puerto
Rico. San Juan radar is showing a few associated showers moving to
the W-NW, south of the Mona Passage. Although it is outside of
radar coverage, satellite imagery is showing an area of likely
heavier showers along the trough south of Hispaniola. Curacao
radar is showing a few showers over northwest Venezuela and
adjacent coastal waters, near the southern end of the trough.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist across
the eastern and central Caribbean, with locally stronger winds and
seas to 7 ft farther south close the South American coast. Gentle
breezes 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail
in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale
force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold
front will move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight through
Sun. The front will stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue.
Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front
over the western Caribbean.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Considerable cloudiness and likely embedded showers are observed
along a stationary front that reaches from 32N54W to eastern
Cuba. Farther west, cloud covers extends along and north of a
cold front reaching from east of Bermuda near 32N61W to 29N75W
then is stationary to 28N80W. Fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted north of the front, west of 75W. Mostly gentle to
moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of
65W. Farther east, ridge extends southwestward from 1034 mb high
pressure south of the Azores to just north of the Leeward Islands.
This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds east
of 65W, with fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W. Seas are 7 to
12 ft with a component of longer period NW swell.

For the forecast for the area west of 65W, the stationary front
from 32N54W to eastern Cuba will weaken today. Winds north of the
front will shift easterly today, and increase north of 27N late. A
low pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda
tonight through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale
force winds. Winds will reach gale force west of the low Sun
night. The low will drag a cold front across the region through
early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon,
supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

$$
Christensen
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