[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02N35W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N-06N between 15W-18W. Similar convection is seen within
about 75 nm N of the ITCZ between 31W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate
northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf, and
gentle NE to E winds across the western Gulf with seas of 1-3
ft, except for lingering 2 to 4 ft off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Some cloudiness are noted over the Gulf,
but mainly S of 24N. The ridge will persist on Fri.

A low pressure is forecast to develop over the Gulf region Fri
night into Sat. This system will deepen and move rapidly toward
the northeast Gulf by late Sat, dragging a cold front across the
Gulf through Sun. The pressure gradient between the deepening low
and high pressure to the N will result in fresh to strong northerly
winds over the western Gulf on Sat. Similar wind speeds are expected
over the NE Gulf, with seas to 8 ft. The low pressure will move
E of the area by Sat night but the pressure gradient will continue
to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the eastern half of
the Gulf on Sun, with seas building to 10 ft. These marine conditions
will reach the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida later
on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh
to strong trade winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia
with moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the south-
central part of the basin. Seas to 9 ft are observed per an
altimeter pass near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere, except moderate northerly winds behind a
cold front, that now extends from near Camaguey, Cuba to near
Cozumel, Mexico. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to near
Chetumal, Mexico by Fri morning, then stall and gradually
dissipate over the Caribbean waters late Fri into Sat.

A narrow band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is
associated with the front. As it is normal for this time of the
year, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving
across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

High pressure building southward across the western Atlantic,
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will bring an increase in
winds over the NW Caribbean, in the lee of Cuba Sun night into
Mon. Under this patter pattern, expect also increasing winds
across the Windward passage and the central Caribbean later on
Mon. Th forecast calls for NE winds of 20-30 kt and seas of 7-9
ft, except 9 to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1003 mb low pressure located E of
Bermuda near 32N58W to Camaguey, Cuba. A narrow band of mainly
low clouds is associated with the front. Some shower activity is
noted ahead of the front N of 27N. The front will reach from 32N60W
to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, then stall and drift northward
on Sat as a low pressure moves from the Gulf of Mexico into the
SW N Atlantic.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores
near 32N32W. The associated ridge covers the waters between the
Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong mid-upper westerly
winds are transporting abundant moisture from NE South America
all the way to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to affect
the western Atlantic and the regional waters of E Florida on Sat
likely producing strong to near gale-force winds. The low is
forecast to move rapidly from central Florida toward Bermuda Sat
night into Sun, dragging another cold front across the SW N Atlantic
through Sun night and Mon, when the front is forecast to reach
the SE waters and Hispaniola. High pressure will build north of 27N
by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue.

$$
GR
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