[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds may still be reaching gale force ahead
of a cold front extending from 32N63W, which is just east of
Bermuda, to central Cuba near 23N80W. The gales are confined to an
area within 90 nm east of the front from 29N to 31N. There is a
large cluster of thunderstorms active in this area currently, and
even if sustained winds are only near-gale force, gusts to gale
force are probably accompanying the thunderstorms. The main upper
dynamics associated with the front are lifting northward, and the
winds are expected to diminish below gale force through the late
morning and early afternoon. Seas are likely 12 to 14 ft near the
area of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the
Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N25W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-
05N between 10W-20W, with an area of moderate convection noted
from 00N-03N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1022 mb high pressure is centered over Louisiana, supporting
moderate northerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas over the eastern Gulf,
and gentle NE to E winds across the western Gulf with 1 to 3 ft
seas, except for lingering 2 to 4 ft off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The high pressure is building across the
northern Gulf in the wake of a frontal boundary that move across
the basin yesterday and last night. Part of that front is stalling
across the Yucatan Channel currently. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted.

For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the basin
into Fri. A low pressure system is expected develop in the
western Gulf early Fri, then deepen and move rapidly eastward
across the Gulf through Sat. High pressure building behind the
front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf Sun
through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is moving slowly across Cuba toward the far northwest
Caribbean. The western part of this front is stalling across the
Yucatan Channel. Light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted across
the northwest Caribbean ahead of the front. Ridging north of area
behind the front is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
across the remainder of the basin, with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for
strong winds and seas to 8 ft off Colombia. A dry pattern persists
across the Caribbean, although a subtle, low-level trough is
moving across the Windward Islands accompanied by scattered
showers. No significant shower activity is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front over Cuba will move into the
northwest Caribbean this afternoon and stall, then lift north of
the area Fri. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in
the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds
expected elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the
northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, stall from the Windward Passage
to Belize by Sun night, then dissipate Mon. Winds will become
fresh to strong across the Caribbean on Sun as the pressure
gradient in the wake of the next cold front significantly tightens
due to building high pressure north of the area. Seas will also
build significantly across those portions of the basin with the
increasing winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Attention remains focused on the deepening low pressure located
near Bermuda. See the Special Features Section above for details
on the ongoing Gale Warning associated with this low.

A cold front reaches from 32N63W, which is just east of Bermuda,
to central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered thunderstorms are active
within 90 nm east of the front, north of 27N. Aside from the area
of gales listed in the Special Features section, fresh to strong
SW winds are noted east of the front to 55W, north of 26N. Seas
are 12 to 14 ft near the gale force winds, and 8 to 12 ft
elsewhere north of 26N between 60W-75W. A broader area of NW swell
with seas in excess of 8 ft cover the remainder of the area north
of 21N between 35W-55W.

Farther east, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N36W.
Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates this pattern is
supporting a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds
south of 20N, with 8 to 9 ft seas in a mix of shorter period trade
wind related E swell and longer period NW swell.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the cold front from
32N63W across the central Bahamas to northern Cuba will weaken
and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba Fri. Strong SW winds to
near- gale force will proceed the front over the waters north of
29N today. Looking ahead, a developing low pressure system will
move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night and Sun,
possibly accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds, and
dragging a cold front across the region Sun night and Mon.

$$
Christensen
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