[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02N35W to
00N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N-03N between 16W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge centered on 1019 mb high pressure near 29N90W dominates
the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds and 2-3 ft seas across the basin. Some low clouds are
noted over the far western Gulf between 20N and 26N, but no
significant showers are evident from satellite imagery.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through Fri. A low
pressure system is expected develop in the western Gulf early
Fri, then deepen and move rapidly eastward across the Gulf
through Sat. The low pressure will move E of the area by Sat
night but the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh
to strong NE-E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf on Sun,
with seas building to 10 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow moving cold front is across the NW Caribbean from central
Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula near 20N87W. No significant winds
or showers are associated with the boundary. The front will
reach from eastern Cuba to north of Belize  Fri morning, then
stall and dissipate over the NW Caribbean waters Fri night and
Sat. Scatterometer data shows fresh NE winds near the coast of
Colombia, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the
region. Typical shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
is moving across the area, producing isolated passing showers.

The cold front will stall overnight then dissipate and lift
north of the area through Fri evening. Fresh to occasionally
strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun,
with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A cold front
is expected to move into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun,
stall from the Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night, then
dissipate Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N59W across the Bahamas to central
Cuba near 22N78W. A narrow band of clouds and showers is noted
ahead of the front north of 23N. The front will extend from
32N55W to eastern Cuba on Fri, then stall and drift northward
Fri night and Sat as a low pressure moves from the Gulf of
Mexico into the SW N Atlantic.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located near the Azores.
The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary
Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are
transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near
South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde
Islands.

The cold front will weaken and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba
on Fri. Northerly winds will follow the front through Fri, then
shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N Sat night. A
developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central
Florida to Bermuda Sat night and Sun, possibly accompanied by
strong to near-gale force winds, and dragging a cold front
across the region through early next week. High pressure will
build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of
27N through Tue.

$$
Mundell
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