[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030423
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: 1015 mb low pressure is analyzed northeast
of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29.5N80W with a stationary front
extending westward across central Florida near/along the I-4
corridor to another area of low pressure in the northeast Gulf of
Mexico. The low will shift to just north of the area overnight
into early Wed, dragging a cold front across the basin. Strong
winds will develop around the low during the next several hours,
increasing to gale force just after sunrise Wed both ahead of and
behind the front and low. These gale force winds will shift east
with the progression of the low and front through mid-week,
remaining mainly north of 29N. Gale force winds should diminish by
Thu evening. Seas will build as the winds increase and the low
deepens, peaking around 16 ft along 31N Wed night.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the basin and
low pressure over northern Colombia will support strong to gale
force winds north of the coast of Colombia tonight until around
sunrise Wed. Seas will peak around 12 ft late tonight into early
Wed.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both
Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 18W-32W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N-06N between 33W-39W, and
from 03N-07N between 46W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed across central Florida to the Gulf
coast near Tampa Bay to 1013 mb low pressure south of the western
Florida Panhandle near 29N87W. A cold front extends from the low
to across the central Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche to Mexico
just east of the Chivela Pass. High pressure continues to build in
the wake of the front from the lower Mississippi Valley to along
the Texas coast and across eastern Mexico. Gale force winds that
were occurring offshore of near Veracruz, Mexico have diminished
to fresh to strong. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of 25N
and east of the low and front. Seas up to 12 ft in the western Bay
of Campeche remain from the earlier gale force winds with 6-11 ft
seas elsewhere west of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft east of the
front, except 3-5 ft north of 25N to 86W. Scattered thunderstorms
are occurring along and north of the stationary front. Cold, dense
air and stratiform precipitation is occurring west of the cold
front. A trough is analyzed from the south-central Gulf near
24N87W to across the western Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers
are occurring near the trough.

The low pressure system and cold front will push eastward across
northern Florida, with the front reaching across the eastern Gulf
through Wed, exiting the basin by early Thu. High pressure will
prevail across the area Thu and Fri. Another low pressure system
will develop over the Gulf waters during the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
north of the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern
Colombia supports fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean,
around the gale force winds described above, with moderate to
fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean.
Seas are 8-11 ft in the south-central and southwest Caribbean, and
mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through the next several days. A cold front will sink
into the northwest Caribbean Thu stalling and weakening along 18N
Fri. Another cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean
this weekend with fresh to strong NE winds in its wake from the
Windward Passage westward. Seas will build slightly in the
Tropical N Atlantic Wed through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
east of northern Florida.

A stationary front is analyzed from 28N65W to 29N77W where it
continues as a warm front into 1015 mb low pressure just northeast
of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29N80W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 28N and west of 65W.
Fresh to strong winds were noted by recent scatterometer data
north of 28N and west of 77W. A ridge of high pressure extends
along 26N with light and variable winds from 24N to 28N, except
moderate return flow west of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are south of 24N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft south of 30N
with building seas north of 30N.

To the east, a cold front extends from 32N55W to 28N65W. High
pressure of 1021 mb is south of the front near 25N56W with another
1021 mb high pressure area near 29N40W. Fresh to strong winds are
occurring north of 29N between 50W-65W near the cold front, along
with 8-12 ft seas in northerly swell. A dissipating stationary
front is south of the eastern high from 32N30W to 25N46W with a
remnant trough from there to 19N49W. Typical moderate to fresh
trades dominate south of 20N.

The low pressure system centered near 29N80W will strengthen and
track NE through Thu night, pushing a strong cold front across the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. High pressure will
prevail over the area Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, another low
pressure system is forecast to affect the SW N Atlantic waters
during the weekend, possibly producing gale force winds over
northern waters.

$$
Lewitsky
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