[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022258
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A tight pressure gradient between
high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
Colombia will produce strong east winds over much of the south-
central Caribbean this week. Gale conditions are expected off the
coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Seas in the area will
reach to 12 ft.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: In the wake of a cold front moving
into the Central Gulf of Mexico, northerly gales offshore
Veracruz, Mexico will weaken to below gale force this evening.
Fresh to strong winds will continue overnight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft
will gradually subside into Wed morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING: SW winds ahead of a cold front will
increase to gale force Wed morning offshore the SE U.S. coast.
Gale conditions will spread east as the front progresses, but
remain mainly N of 28N. By Thu, the front will stretch from
Bermuda to the Bahamas, with gales still continuing SE of Bermuda,
ahead of the boundary. Seas of 10 to 13 will accompany the
strongest winds.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N25W, to the equator at 33W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from the equator and 10N between 18W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for details on diminishing
gales offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

A 1017 low pressure center is located just S of SE Louisiana. A
cold front extends SW from it into the Bay of Campeche. To the
east, stationary front is located from the low to just N of Tampa
Bay. Although scattered lighter showers all located along the cold
front, most significant convection is noted N of the stationary
front, N of 27N and E of 92W.

With surfacting ridging occurring behind the cold front, fresh to
strong N winds dominate the far western Gulf. Fresh NE winds are
occurring north of the stationary front, with generally moderate
S winds elsewhere. Seas average 6 to 9 ft in the western Gulf and
2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

The low pressure will move toward the NE Gulf tonight, dragging
the cold front across the western Gulf. The stationary front will
lift northward and be N of the area by tonight. Gale-force winds
occurring in the Veracruz area will diminish below gale force by
this evening. The cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Wed morning, and move
across the SE Gulf Wed night into Thu. High pressure is expected
in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, another low pressure
system is forecast to develop over the Gulf waters during the
upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features Section above for details on continuing gales
off the coast of Colombia.

Sandwiched between high pressure to the north and low pressure
over South America, fresh trades prevail over the Caribbean Basin.
Generally dry conditions also prevail. Seas average 5 to 8 ft,
except 8 to 10 ft in the SW Caribbean, due to the higher winds off
the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Thu. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Seas to 8 ft are still noted
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Long period northerly
swell will reach again the region late on Thu, and continue
through the weekend building seas up to 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for details on develop gales in
the SW Atlantic.

A cold front stretches from 32N62W to just N of the Bahamas, where
it then becomes stationary and extends to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida. All behind the front, scattered moderate convection is
occurring. N of 27N, fresh to strong SW winds are occuring ahead
of the front, with fresh to locally strong NE winds behind the
front. Farther S, but N of 20N, winds are mainly gentle as the
area is dominated by high pressure centered near 25N60W, of 1020
mb. Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 32N28W
to 23N48W. Scattered moderate convection still remains within
about 30 nm of this boundary.

S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades prevail, along with seas of 5
to 7 ft. Between 20N and 27N, seas average 4 to 6 ft, with areas
farther north experiencing seas of 8 to 10 ft.

The front will transition to a warm front in response to low
pressure forecast to move off the coast of Georgia by early Wed
morning. The low pressure will strengthen and track NE through Thu
night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of
the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by strong to
gale-force winds and building seas. Gale conditions are expected
across the northern waters Wed and Wed night. In its wake, high
pressure will build over the area through Fri night. Looking
ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to affect the SW N
Atlantic during the upcoming weekend producing gale force winds
over the N waters.

$$
KONARIK
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