[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near
Jacksonville, Florida with a stationary front extending westward
across northern Florida to another area of low pressure in the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near the Big Bend of Florida. The low
will shift northeastward today, dragging a cold front across the
region. Strong winds will develop around the low this morning,
increasing to gale-force later today, mainly in the SW flow ahead
of the front and low. These gale force winds will shift east with
the progression of the low and front through mid-week, remaining
mainly north of 29N. Gale-force winds should diminish by Thu
afternoon or evening. Seas will build as the winds increase and
the low deepens, peaking at around 16 ft along 31N tonight.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the basin and
low pressure over northern Colombia will support strong to gale
force winds north of the coast of Colombia early this morning.
Seas will peak around 12 ft this morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both
Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 02N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 17W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure near the Big Bend
of Florida, across the central Gulf and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Broad high pressure is northwest of the front from the
lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast and across eastern
Mexico. Strong winds near Veracruz, Mexico continue to diminish as
the cold front shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
north of 25N and east of the low and front. Seas up to 10 ft are
in the western Bay of Campeche, with 6-8 ft seas elsewhere west
of the front. Seas are 2-5 ft east of the front. Widely scattered
showers are occurring along the cold front. Stratiform clouds and
showers are occurring west of the front. A trough is analyzed
across the western Yucatan Peninsula ahead of the cold front.

The low pressure system and cold front will push eastward across
northern Florida today, dragging the cold front across the eastern
Gulf, then exit the basin early Thu. High pressure will prevail
across the area Thu and Fri. Another low pressure system will
develop over the Gulf waters during the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
north of the coast of Colombia early this morning.

High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern
Colombia supports fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean,
around the gale force winds described above, with moderate to
fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean.
Seas are 8-12 ft in the south-central and southwest Caribbean,
and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Thu. A cold front will sink into the northwest
Caribbean Thu stalling and weakening along 18N Fri. Another cold
front will move into the northwest Caribbean this weekend with
fresh to strong NE winds in its wake from the Windward Passage
westward. Winds and seas are expected to increase across the
eastern Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
east of northern Florida.

A stationary front is analyzed from 28N69W to 30N76W, where it
continues as a warm front into a 1012 mb low pressure just NE of
Jacksonville, Florida near 30N80W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring north of the frontal boundary. A
ridge of high pressure is along 26N with light and variable winds
from 24N to 28N, except for moderate return flow west of the
Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are south of 24N. Seas
are mainly 4-7 ft south of 30N with building seas north of 30N.

Further east, a cold front extends from 32N53W to 27N63W to
28N69W. An area of 1022 mb is centered near 27N30W. Fresh winds
are occurring north of 29N between 50W-65W near the cold front,
along with 8-12 ft seas in northerly swell. A remnant trough is
SE of the cold front from 31N50W to 26N58W. Typical moderate to
fresh trades dominate south of 20N.

The low pressure system centered near 30N80W will strengthen and
track NE through Thu night, pushing a strong cold front across the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. High pressure will
prevail over the area Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, another low
pressure system is forecast to affect the SW N Atlantic waters
during the weekend, possibly producing gale force winds over
northern waters.

$$
Mundell
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