[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Danny, at 29/0300 UTC, is near
32.6N 81.5W, or about 43 nm/80 km to the WNW of Beaufort in
South Carolina, and about 83 nm/150 km to the W of Charleston in
South Carolina. DANNY is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees,
13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 kt.
Precipitation: Scattered strong is in central Georgia. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: it is possible that any nearby precipitation may
be more related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 17N
southward, moving westward about 20 knots. A 1009 mb low
pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 11N.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 400 nm of the low
pressure center in the W quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10N to 14N between 40W and the tropical wave.
Some slow development is possible later this week, and during
the weekend, while this system moves westward to
west-northwestward from 15 to 20  mph. It is likely that this
low pressure center may reach the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday
night. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The GFS
model for 500 mb indicates that broad cyclonic wind flow covers
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An inverted trough extends
from Nicaragua and Honduras to NW Cuba.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 90 nm on either side
of the line that runs from eastern Honduras to the central Cuba.

A tropical wave is along 96W/97W from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and from
the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of Honduras to western
Honduras and to the eastern sections of Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W, 08N30W, to the 1009 mb low
pressure center that is along the 45W tropical wave near 12N. No
ITCZ is present at the moment. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate, and locally strong is elsewhere from 14N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire Gulf of
Mexico. One upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the
Florida Panhandle/the Florida Big Bend. A second upper level
cyclonic circulation center is inland in Mexico near 25N100W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 80 nm to 190
nm to the east of the Deep South of Texas, and Mexico, from 21N
to 26N. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from NE Florida, into the central Gulf
of Mexico, toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days, producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh E
to SE fresh winds are expected at night, near the western Yucatan
Peninsula, through Saturday night, due to local effects that are
induced by a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 500 mb indicates that broad cyclonic wind flow
covers the NW corner of the area. An inverted trough extends
from Nicaragua and Honduras to NW Cuba. A tropical wave is along
79W/80W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15
knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 90 nm on either
side of the line that runs from eastern Honduras to the central
Cuba.

A second tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 17N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered strong is confined to the southern
coastal areas of Panama near 08N82W. Isolated moderate is from
15N southward from 80W westward. It is possible that this
precipitation may be related more to the 79W/80W tropical wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave, along 80W, will move
westward, across the western Caribbean Sea into Tuesday.
Increasing winds and seas are expected behind the tropical wave,
as high pressure builds westward, to the north of the Caribbean
Sea. A current central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is producing
disorganized rainshowers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this disturbance is possible after the middle of
the week, while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
15 to 20 knots, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday
night, and reaching Puerto Rico on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from 30N50W, for about 800 nm to
the SW, and then northwestward to 30N80W. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong
precipitation, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from
50W westward.

A stationary front passes through 31N37W, to 30N40W, to 29N50W,
28N56W, and to 30N59W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers, are within 60 nm
to 120 nm on either side of the front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N22W, through 31N26W to 29N30W, and to 27N40W.

Danny has moved inland this evening. Danny has weakened into a
tropical depression, near 32.6N 81.5W 1013 mb at 11 PM EDT,
moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Danny
will remain north of the area, moving west into Georgia Tue
morning, then dissipating Tue evening. The Atlantic Ocean ridge
will build westward, and dominate the forecast waters during the
remainder of the week. Fresh winds are expected just N of
Hispaniola at night, beginning on Wednesday night. It is likely
for a tropical wave to approach the areas that are to the south
and east of the Bahamas late in the week.

$$
MT/SK
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