[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Danny is centered near 32.3N 80.1W at 28/2100 UTC
or 30 nm E of Beaufort South Carolina moving WNW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present within 120 NM of the center
in the W semicircle. No substantial winds or seas are in TAFB's
area of responsibility. Danny is moving toward the west-
northwest near 14 kt and this general motion is expected to
continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, Danny will make
landfall along the southern coast of South Carolina early this
evening, and move into east-central Georgia late tonight and early
Tuesday morning. No change in strength is expected until landfall
occurs in a few hours. Rapid weakening is forecast after Danny
moves inland. Danny could produce 1-3" of rainfall with locally
higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 15N southward and
moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N-10N between 20W-32W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward and
moving W around 20 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure system is embedded
within this wave near 12N43W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N-13N between 40W-47W. Fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found from 12N-15N between 40W-45W.
Some slow development of this disturbance is possible after the
middle of the week while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward around 15 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles
by Wednesday night. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 62W from 17N south-
southwestward over the Lesser Antilles. It is moving W at 10 to
15 kt. No significant convection is associated currently with this
wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from Jamaica southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring from 18N-20N between 77W-80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 08N38W. An ITCZ then continues from
06N41W to near Suriname at 04N51W. Convection is noted along the
monsoon trough only in association with the easternmost tropical
wave noted above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging northeast of the Gulf of Mexico is helping to
induce generally gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf this
afternoon. Seas are 2-4 ft across the E and S central Gulf and 4-6
ft across the W and N central Gulf. An upper-level trough
extending from a low near the Mexico/Texas border to another low
near the Yucatan Peninsular is promoting numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection across the W Gulf. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also seen in the E Gulf.

The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next
several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh E to
SE fresh winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan
Peninsula through Sat night due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High well north
of the Caribbean and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong E
trades just north of Colombia and moderate to fresh E to SE trades
elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft north of Colombia
and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical wave described above, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted south of 15N west of 81W in association
with the Pacific monsoon trough that extends across Panama to NW
Colombia.

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean along 78W will move
west across the Western Caribbean tonight into Tue. Increasing
winds and seas are expected behind the wave axis as high pressure
builds westward N of the Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave located
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this disturbance is possible after the middle of
the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday
night, and Puerto Rico on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Danny.

A stationary front extends from 31N38W westward to a 1022 mb low
at 30N50W. West of the low, a weak cold front extends to 28N54W to
30N59W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, ridging associated with a
1028 mb Bermuda High near 35N64W extends east-west north of TAFB's
waters. Farther east ridging extends from 27N50W to 31N25W. Trades
south of the ridge are generally gentle to moderate. An upper-
level trough is inducing scattered convection from 25N- 28N
between 65W-70W.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Storm Danny is located N
of the forecast area near 32.3N 80.1W 1010 mb at 5 PM EDT moving
WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. This
tropical cyclone will remain N of the forecast region and should
make landfall along coast of South Carolina later this evening.
The Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the forecast
waters the remainder of the week. Fresh winds are expected just N
of Hispaniola at night beginning Wed night. A tropical wave may
approach areas south and east of the Bahamas late in the week.

$$
Landsea
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