[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) Four is centered near
32N78W, about 180 nm ESE of Charleston, South Carolina.
Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
displaced W of the center due to strong upper level wind shear.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen N of
30N from 73W to the coast of south and north Carolinas. TD Four
is forecast to move quickly WNW near 16 mph and make landfall
along the coast of South Carolina later this evening. Aided by
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, TD Four is expected to
intensify into a weak tropical storm before making landfall, and
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the South Carolina
coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the
South Carolina coast. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected
along the coastal areas and adjacent waters of South Carolina and
Georgia. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 15N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 17W and 24W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 16N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure system is
embedded within this wave near 12N41W. Scattered showers are
seen from 10N to 16N between 38W and 43W. Fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found from 12N to 16N
between 37W and 45W. Some slow development is possible through
the end of the week. It is anticipated to reach the Lesser
Antilles by Wed night. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 17N south-
southwestward near the Lesser Antilles. It is moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
off the coast of northern Venezuela and the NE corner of
Venezuela.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from Jamaica southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring over part of the western Caribbean, near
the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua from 10N to 18N between 79W
and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is evident between Cuba and
Jamaica, and also over the coast of eastern Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N24W to 07N38W. An ITCZ then
continues from 06N41W to near Suriname at 04N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 03N to 10N between 27W to
37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extending from a low near the Mexico/Texas
border to another low near the Yucatan Peninsular is coupling with
convergent E to SE winds to trigger numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection across the western Gulf. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from near the Louisiana coast,
southeastward across the central Gulf to just W of the Keys.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found
near this convection. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 3
ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Expect
E to SE fresh winds at night near the western Yucatan Peninsula
through Fri night due to local effects induced by a thermal
trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves described
above, no significant convection is occurring.

Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are across the
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft
prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave currently moving across Jamaica
will move west across the Western Caribbean tonight into Tue.
Increasing winds and seas are expected behind the wave axis as
high pressure builds westward N of the Caribbean Sea. A broad area
of low pressure is associated with another tropical located over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean along 41W S of 16N. Some slow
development is possible through the end of the week while this
system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph,
likely reaching the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Four.

A slow-moving cold front extends westward from a 1020 mb low
pressure system at 29N49W to 28N55W, then curves northwestward to
31N58W. Scattered showers are found from 27N to 31N between 41W
and 57W.

An upper-level trough stretches southeastward from N Florida
through a low north of the Bahamas at 28N73W to another low north
of Puerto Rico at 24N65W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is flaring up from the Keys westward to just W of the
Bahamas, and farther E from 23N to 27N between 63W and 72W. A
broad area of Saharan dust is indicated on satellite generally S
of 25N and E of 40W.

Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail N of 20N W of
27W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate from
08N to 20N between from 28W to the Lesser Antilles, and also near
the Canary Islands from 20N to 29N E of 30W.

For the forecast W of 65W, Tropical Depression Four is located
just N of the forecast region near 31.9N 78.3W 1013 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt gusts
40 kt. This tropical cyclone will remain N of the forecast area
and should make landfall along coast of South Carolina later this
evening. The Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the
forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh winds are
expected just N of Hispaniola at night beginning Wed night. A
tropical wave may approach areas south and east of the Bahamas
late in the week.

$$

PC
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