[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Danny are centered near 33.0N 83.0W at 29/0900
UTC or 80 nm ESE of Atlanta Georgia moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1019 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over central Georgia, with no significant precipitation
over marine areas. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A broad area of scattered moderate
convection has developed from 0N to 10N between 25W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W, roughly 900 miles E
of the Lesser Antilles, from 17N southward, moving W at 20 kt. A
broad 1010 mb low pressure center is along this wave near 12N.
Disorganized but numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted within 200 nm of the low pressure center in all
quadrants. Some slow development of this feature is possible later
this week and weekend while it continues to move W to WNW at 15 to
20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wed night. Please,
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov,
for more information.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from Puerto Rico southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection previously
associated with this wave has diminished.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from the Cayman
Islands southward, moving W at 10 kt. This wave, aided by a mid to
upper level trough in the northwest Caribbean, is producing
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 20N
between 79W and 85W, as well as portions of Honduras.

A tropical wave that was producing convection over coastal areas
of southern Mexico and portions of northern Central America has
moved into the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N25W to the 1010 mb low pressure near
12N49W, described above. Significant convection in the vicinity of
the monsoon trough is primarily associated with tropical waves,
detailed in the section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low pressure centered near the Florida Panhandle is
inducing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within
150 nm of the Florida coast. A mid and upper level trough along
the eastern Mexico coast is also producing numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection within 180 nm of the Mexican coast,
offshore the states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Scattered moderate
convection encompasses the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh SE
prevail over the basin, with the slightly higher winds over the
western Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 4 to 6 ft
in the western Gulf.

Deep layer ridging, centered NE of the area, will dominate the
Gulf waters over the next several days producing mainly moderate E
to SE winds. Fresh E to SE fresh winds are expected at night near
the western Yucatan Peninsula through Sat night due to local
effects induced by a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the basin is associated with the tropical wave
depicted in the above section. Winds are generally moderate to
fresh across the basin, with an area of strong east winds in the
southern central Caribbean N of Colombia. Another area of locally
strong winds is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the
basin are generally 4 to 6 ft, but an area of 7 to 9 ft seas are
observed where winds are strongest, off the Colombian coast.

Convection that had been associated with the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough that stretches across Costa Rica and into the far
SW Caribbean to around 74W at the coast of Colombia has
diminished.

Winds and seas will increase today as high pressure to
the northern builds toward the area. A tropical wave located over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this
disturbance is possible after the middle of the week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt, likely
reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night, and Puerto Rico
on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is noted from 31N37W to 27N52W to 30N60W.
Precipitation previously associated with this weakening boundary
has diminished, although there remains a cluster of scattered
moderate convection from 22N to 27N between 62W and 69W. This
activity is being producing by a weakening upper level trough over
the region.

Elsewhere across the basin, weather N of 20N is being dominated by
high pressures centered NE of the Bahamas and to the N of the
Canary Islands. This is leading to generally gentle winds and seas
less than 6 ft. To the S of 20N, fresh trade winds prevail and
seas average 5 to 7 ft.

The Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the forecast
waters the remainder of the week. Fresh winds are expected just N
of Hispaniola at night beginning Wed night. A tropical wave will
likely approach areas south and east of the Bahamas late in the
week.

$$
KONARIK
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