[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260926
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 11N east of
32W. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing a tropical
cyclone within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 09N between 40W and 44W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed
from 07N to 09N between 52W and 56W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from Puerto Rico
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection behind
this wave is impacting waters around the Leeward Islands.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the NW Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 05N22W to 05N37W. A segment of the ITCZ is
analyzed from 04N44W to 04N50W. Aside from convection associated
with the previous described tropical waves, activity associated
with the monsoon trough and ITCZ has diminished this morning.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough located over the central Gulf from 26N87W to
21N90W is inducing scattered moderate convection over mainly the
SE Gulf from 22N to 27W between 82W and 88W. Generally moderate SE
winds prevail over the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, highest
close to the Texas coast.

For the forecast, the trough will move west through the NW Gulf
through the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms
as well as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE
winds will persist from early to mid week between a trough over
the far southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western
Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Due to a relatively weak pressure gradient, moderate trades are
occurring over most of the basin, except gentle SE winds in the
NW Caribbean and S of 11N. Seas average 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted over Haiti and the Windward Passage.
An additional area of scattered moderate convection, associated
with the E Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted south of 12N between
the Colombia/Venezuela border and 80W.

For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean will move westward across the basin through Mon. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south
central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and
seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week
as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the
wake of the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough off the N Florida coast from 30N78W to
28N78W is no longer producing any significant convection. To the
east, a deep layer trough from 30N62W to 26N65W is producing
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 30N
between 60W and 67W. Fresh E winds are occurring with this trough
as well. Elsewhere across the basin, gentle to moderate trades
prevail, although southwest of the Canary Islands, fresh NE winds
are observed. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across much of the
tropical Atlantic. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are present SW of the Canary
Islands in the area of fresh winds.

For the forecast W of 65W, the trough S of Bermuda will move
across the region through Tue, followed by weak high pressure
through the middle of next week. Generally moderate east wind will
prevail.

$$
KONARIK
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