[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is just W of the Cabo Verde Islands
along 26W. A surface low pressure center of 1012 mb is embedded
within this wave near 09N26W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen from 08N to 14N between 23W to 31W. Although
shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, some
slow development will be possible over the next several days while
the disturbance moves generally westward at about 15 kt. This
tropical wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

A second Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 18N southward and
moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present north of Guyana from 07N to 09N between 54W and 59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W/67W from near Puerto Rico
southward and moving W near 5 kt. The wave is enhancing convection
over Puerto Rico and regional waters, as well as over the NE
Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands. The northern USVI
already received rainfall amounts between 1-3 inches this morning,
with St Thomas having most of the rain.

A second Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from western Cuba
southward and moving W near 5 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted near western Cuba from 20N to 22N between 82W and 87W,
including the Yucatan Channel. Similar convective activity is
also found across the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N between 79W
and 83W. This convection is also affecting the Caribbean plains of
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W and a low pressure system at 09N27W to 06N42W.
A segment of the ITCZ is seen from 05N45W to 05N52W. A cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up over the
African coast from 07N to 16N between 11W to 21W. Scattered
moderate convection is present farther W from 05N to 07N between
33W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough located over the south central Gulf near 23N91W
is coupling with an upper-level low south of New Orleans at
28N89W to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the SE Gulf from 22N to 26N between 82W and 89W. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over
the central and western edge of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, a deep layer trough extending from the NE
through central Gulf will move west through the NW Gulf through
the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms as well
as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will
persist from early to mid week between a trough over the far
southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean
Sea. Refer to the Tropical Wave section for more details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over
the south-central Caribbean basin from 09N to 13N between 73W and
78W.

Due to a relatively weak pressure gradient, gentle to moderate
trades are occurring over most of the basin, except moderate to
locally fresh trades just north of Colombian coast and near the
Windward Islands. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in these areas.
Seas at 2 to 3 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean will move westward across the basin through Mon. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south
central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and
seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week
as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the
wake of the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending from 30N63W to 25N65W is coupling with
an upper-level low at 32N67W to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Bermuda from 24N to 31N between 59W and
69W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft
are found north of 28N between 59W and 70W.

Another upper-level low near 26N67W is inducing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near and north of the Leeward Islands
from 18N to 23N between 69W and 64W.

A surface trough just off the northern Florida coast from 29N80W
to beyond 31N81W is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern half of Florida from West Palm
Beach northward.

Under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure located near
28N38W, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident
across the Atlantic basin north of 23N between 31W and 58W.
Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present
between 10N and 23N from the African coast westward to the Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a trough along 65W will move across
the region through Tue, followed by weak high pressure through the
middle of next week.

$$

GR/PC
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